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Golez, Benjamin - 2015

We combine annual stock market data for the most important equity markets of the last four centuries: the Netherlands/U.K. (1629-1812), U.K. (1813-1870) and U.S. (1871-2015). We show that dividend yields are stationary and consistently forecast returns. The documented predictability holds for...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013031015

Long-Run Bulls and Bears

Albuquerque, Rui A. - 2015

A central challenge in asset pricing is the weak connection between stock returns and observable economic fundamentals. We provide evidence that this connection is stronger than previously thought. We use a modified version of the Bry-Boschan algorithm to identify long-run swings in the stock...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013030069

Stock Return Predictability : Is it There?

Bekaert, Geert - 2010

We ask whether stock returns in France, Germany, Japan, the UK and the US are predictable by three instruments: the dividend yield, the earnings yield and the short rate. The predictability regression is suggested by a present value model with earnings growth, payout ratios and the short rate as...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012763174

Identifying Long-Run Risks : A Bayesian Mixed-Frequency Approach

Schorfheide, Frank - 2014

multiple stochastic volatility processes. The estimation is based on annual consumption data from 1929 to 1959, monthly … Bayesian estimation provides strong evidence for a small predictable component in consumption growth (even if asset return data … are omitted from the estimation). Three independent volatility processes capture different frequency dynamics; our …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013050301

Predicting Returns with Text Data

Ke, Zheng Tracy - 2019

We introduce a new text-mining methodology that extracts sentiment information from news articles to predict asset returns. Unlike more common sentiment scores used for stock return prediction (e.g., those sold by commercial vendors or built with dictionary-based methods), our supervised...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012863706

Innovative Originality, Profitability, and Stock Returns

Hirshleifer, David A. - 2017

We propose that innovative originality (InnOrig) is a valuable organizational resource, and that owing to limited investor attention and skepticism of complexity, firms with greater InnOrig are undervalued. We find that firms' InnOrig strongly predicts higher, more persistent, and less volatile...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012955455

Growth Expectations, Dividend Yields, and Future Stock Returns

Da, Zhi - 2014

According to the dynamic version of the Gordon growth model, the long-run expected return on stocks, stock yield, is the sum of the dividend yield on stocks plus some weighted average of expected future growth rates in dividends. We construct a measure of stock yield based on sell-side analysts'...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013044614

Financial Constraints and Stock Returns

Lamont, Owen A. - 2008

We test whether the impact of financial constraints on firm value is observable in assetquot; returns. We form portfolios of firms based on observable characteristics related to financialquot; constraints, and test for common covariation in the stock returns of these firms. Using severalquot;...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012774925

Levered Returns

Welch, Ivo - 2016

Do financial markets properly reflect leverage? Unlike Gomes and Schmid (2010) who examine this question with a structural approach (using long-term monthly stock characteristics), my paper examines it with a quasi-experimental approach (using short-term a discrete event). After a firm has...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012994892

Capital Share Risk in U.S. Asset Pricing

Lettau, Martin - 2014

A single macroeconomic factor based on growth in the capital share of aggregate income exhibits significant explanatory power for expected returns across a range of equity characteristic portfolios and non-equity asset classes, with risk price estimates that are of the same sign and similar in...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013040236

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