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We estimate Taylor (1993) rules and identify monetary policy shocks using no-arbitrage pricing techniques. Long-term interest rates are risk-adjusted expected values of future short rates and thus provide strong over-identifying restrictions about the policy rule used by the Federal Reserve. The...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012759788
This paper provides a brief survey of the relationship between the yield curve and future changes in interest rates and … inflation. The expectations hypothesis of the term structure indicates .that when the yield curve is upward sloping, future … hypothesis, yield spreads are positively correlated with future changes in short-term interest rates, particularly at long …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012763494
2.5 years at a minutely frequency. The convenience yield on treasuries equals about 40 basis points, is larger below 3 … monetary stimulus reduce convenience yields, particularly during the crisis. We further study convenience-yield-free CIP …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012864808
We construct a no-arbitrage term structure model with jumps in the entire state vector at deterministic times but of random magnitudes. Jump risk premia are allowed for. We show that the model implies a closed-form representation of yields as a time-inhomogenous affine function of the state...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013043278
yield shocks” transmit across countries in the Eurozone. We sketch how GIVs could be useful to estimate a host of other …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014089927
This paper relates predictable gains from positions in fed funds futures contracts to violations of the expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates. Although evidence for predictable gains from positions in short-horizon contracts is mixed, we find that gains in longer...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013070299
This paper develops an affine model of the term structure of interest rates in which bond yields are driven by observable and unobservable macroeconomic factors. It imposes restrictions to identify the effects of monetary policy and other structural disturbances on output, inflation, and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013015094
time. The overall response of the yield curve to output gap components is relatively small. In contrast, the inflation … widening yield spreads …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013151139
It is well known that in the postwar period stockreturns have tended to be low when the short term nominal interest rate is high. In this paper I show that more generally the state of the term structure of interest rates predicts stock returns. Risk premia on stocks appear to move closely...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012774670
news for consumption growth, the nominal yield curve slopes up. Moreover, the level of nominal interest rates and term …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012778238