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This paper develops the theoretical foundations and the testable implications of the various mechanisms that have been proposed as possible triggers for the demographic transition. Moreover, it examines the empirical validity of each of the theories and their significance for the understanding...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013125156
couples. In this paper, we quantify the degree of actuarial advantage or disadvantage for individuals whose mortality differs … from the average. We find that at real interest rates close to zero, most households - even those with mortality rates that … historical average, however, singles with mortality that is substantially greater than average do not benefit from delay; however …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013090660
markets, focusing on the US, the UK, and Japan. Our results help assess the extent to which life insurers can hedge mortality …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012786402
A large literature following Ruhm (2000) suggests that mortality falls during recessions and rises during booms. The … of the relationship between business cycles and mortality are highly sensitive to assumptions related to migration. After … adjusting for migration, we find that mortality increased during the cotton recession, but was largely unaffected by the coal …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012954452
We face a variety of potential catastrophes; nuclear or bioterrorism, a climate catastrophe, and a "mega-virus" are examples. Martin and Pindyck (AER 2015) showed that decisions to avert such catastrophes are interdependent, so that simple cost-benefit analysis breaks down. They assumed that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012957386
assumptions of full annuitization and deterministic health. Our framework can value the prevention of mortality and of illness … illness can significantly increase the value of statistical life, helping to reconcile theory with empirical findings that … add $127 billion to the value of a one percent decline in future mortality …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012911078
adult life span is about 15 years in the U.S., and theory and evidence suggest it is costly. I calibrate a utility … component due to infant mortality, has exhibited even more convergence than life expectancy. Sustained reductions in the … total economic value of gains against mortality in the U.S. prior to 1950 but only about 5 percent since …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012759205
In this paper, we argue that actuarial valuation of annuity benefit streams is theoretically inconsistent with the assumption of pure lifecycle motives. Instead, we show that the simple discounted value of future benefits (ignoring the possibility of death) is often a good approximation to the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012762969
unchanged. We then link these long-run changes in alcohol consumption patterns to changes in male mortality. The shift from hard … recent decrease in male mortality. Simulations suggest that mortality will continue to decrease by another 23% over the next …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013050304
initial wealth at retirement and mortality rates after retirement. I propose a simple but flexible theoretical framework that …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013044339