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This paper provides a critical review of models of the spread of the coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) epidemic that have been …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012836420
Childhood vaccinations are an important input to disease prevention, but vaccination rates have declined over the last decade due largely to parental fears about vaccine dangers. Education campaigns on the safety of vaccines seem to have little impact. Anecdotal evidence on disease outbreaks...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012985902
The recession induced by the COVID-19 pandemic resulted in major declines in employment of women, both from the demand side as firms reduced employment and from the supply side resulting from school closures and the closing of many child care facilities. We provide projections of possible...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014242235
The collapse of economic activity in 2020 from COVID-19 has been immense. An important question is how much of that resulted from government restrictions on activity versus people voluntarily choosing to stay home to avoid infection. This paper examines the drivers of the collapse using cellular...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012829790
supply. The average GDP drop would have been - 30:2% in a world without trade in inputs and final goods. This is because …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012833120
We build a minimalist model of the macroeconomics of a pandemic, with two essential components. The first is productivity-related: if the virus forces firms to shed labor beyond a certain threshold, productivity suffers. The second component is a credit market imperfection: because lenders...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012833117
This paper explores ways to integrate model uncertainty into policy evaluation. We first describe a general framework for the incorporation of model uncertainty into standard econometric calculations. This framework employs Bayesian model averaging methods that have begun to appear in a range of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013230619
Malawian epidemic. In the developed framework, people select between different sexual practices while knowing the inherent risk …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013083407
We use data on deaths in New York City, Madrid, Stockholm, and other world cities as well as in various U.S. states and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012834462
To what extent is the recent spike in inflation driven by a change in its permanent component? We estimate a semi-structural model of output, inflation, and the nominal interest rate in the United States over the period 1900-2021. The model predicts that between 2019 and 2021 the permanent...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014078597