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We show that unexpected changes in the trajectory of COVID-19 infections predict US stock returns, in real time. Parameter estimates indicate that an unanticipated doubling (halving) of projected infections forecasts next-day decreases (increases) in aggregate US market value of 4 to 11 percent,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012837801
No previous infectious disease outbreak, including the Spanish Flu, has impacted the stock market as forcefully as the COVID-19 pandemic. In fact, previous pandemics left only mild traces on the U.S. stock market. We use text-based methods to develop these points with respect to large daily...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012837802
What explains stock market behavior in the early weeks of the coronavirus pandemic? Estimates from a dynamic asset …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012823756
We consider several economic uncertainty indicators for the US and UK before and during the COVID-19 pandemic: implied stock market volatility, newspaper-based economic policy uncertainty, twitter chatter about economic uncertainty, subjective uncertainty about future business growth, and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012830476
We empirically decompose the S&P 500's dividend yield into (1) a rational forecast of long-run real dividend growth, (2 …) the subjectively expected risk premium, and (3) residual mispricing attributed to the market's forecast of dividend growth …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013133237
We recover prices of dividend strips on the aggregate stock market using data from derivatives markets. The price of a … k-year dividend strip is the present value of the dividend paid in k years. The value of the stock market is the sum of … all dividend strip prices across maturities. We study the properties of strips and find that expected returns, Sharpe …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013137025
conditions under which the variation in a small asset's price-dividend ratio can be attributed almost entirely to variation in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013118845
through principal component analysis of the covariance matrix of log price dividend ratios of twenty five equity portfolios … formed on Size and Book-to-Market. We identify two price-dividend ratio factor proxies for economy wide long run risk, one … returns alone. The price dividend ratio factors perform better than the stock index price dividend ratio and the corporate …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013119779
firm shifts its dividend risk to the upside, which amplifies the overvaluation and explains the premium. Second, we argue … market through a higher share price, but is inefficient from the perspective of dividend value …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013121056
Simple efficient markets models imply that the covariance between prices of speculative assets cannot exceed the covariance between their respective fundamentals unless there is positive information pooling. Positive information pooling occurs when there is more information, in a sense defined...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012774548