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to providing new insights on contagion during crisis periods, we document patterns through time in world and regional … market integration and measure the proportion of volatility driven by global, regional, and local factors …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012762856
This paper addresses how creditor protection affects the volatility of stock market prices. Credit protection reduces … volatility in 40 countries over the period from 1984 to 2004. Estimated probabilities of a liquidity crisis are used as a proxy … price volatility …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012776957
According to conventional wisdom, annualized volatility of stock returns is lower when computed over long horizons than …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012764748
institutions predicts higher volatility and greater noise in stock prices as well as greater fragility in times of crisis. When …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012992142
If commercial producers or financial investors use futures contracts to hedge against commodity price risk, the arbitrageurs who take the other side of the contracts may receive compensation for their assumption of nondiversifiable risk in the form of positive expected returns from their...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013081835
Adverse shocks to stock markets propagate across the world, with a jump in one region of the world seemingly causing an … increase in the likelihood of a different jump in another region of the world. To capture this effect mathematically, we … introduce a model for asset return dynamics with a drift component, a volatility component and mutually exciting jumps known as …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013146261
The empirical literature on contagion has mainly measured the propagation of shocks across countries using daily stock markets, interest rates, and exchange rates. Several methodologies have been used for this purpose, however, the properties of the data introduces important limitations on the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013243366
Using the 2007-09 financial crisis as a laboratory, we analyze the transmission of crises to country-industry equity portfolios in 55 countries. We use a factor model to predict crisis returns, defining unexplained increases in factor loadings and residual correlations as indicative of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013123703
Current debates on globalization have tended to focus on financial market volatility and contagion. In fact, many … whether there has been volatility contagion from Mexico to the two South American nations. The results obtained from the … estimation of augmented GARCH equations indicate, quite strongly, that while there has been volatility contagion from Mexico to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013223060
We show that unexpected changes in the trajectory of COVID-19 infections predict US stock returns, in real time. Parameter estimates indicate that an unanticipated doubling (halving) of projected infections forecasts next-day decreases (increases) in aggregate US market value of 4 to 11 percent,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012837801