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Rosenzweig, Mark R. - 2013

areas of India, and that farmers respond more strongly to the forecast where there is more forecast skill and not at all … when there is no skill. We show, using an IV strategy in which the Indian government forecast of monsoon rainfall serves as … estimated. Using the full rainfall distribution and our profit function estimates, we find that Indian farmers on average under …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013077650

Changing Times, Changing Values : A Historical Analysis of Sectors within the Us Stock Market 1872-2013

Bunn, Oliver - 2014

We construct a price, dividend, and earnings series for the Industrials sector, the Utilities sector, and the Railroads sector from the beginning of the 1870s until the beginning of the year 2013 from primary sources. To infer about mispricings in the sector markets over more than a century, we...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013049370

Measuring the Economic Effect of Global Warming on Viticulture Using Auction, Retail, and Wholesale Prices

Ashenfelter, Orley - 2010

In this paper we measure the effect of year to year changes in the weather on wine prices and winery revenue in the Mosel Valley in Germany in order to determine the effect that climate change is likely to have on the income of wine growers. A novel aspect of our analysis is that we compare the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013142934

The Predictive Power of the Yield Curve Across Countries and Time

Chinn, Menzie David - 2010

In recent years, there has been renewed interest in the yield curve (or alternatively, the term premium) as a predictor of future economic activity. In this paper, we re-examine the evidence for this predictor, both for the United States, as well as European countries. We examine the sensitivity...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013137763

Predictability of Returns and Cash Flows

Koijen, Ralph S. J. - 2010

We review the literature on return and cash flow growth predictability form the perspective of the present-value identity. We focus predominantly on recent work. Our emphasis is on U.S. aggregate stock return predictability, but we also discuss evidence from other asset classes and countries

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013134792

Improving GDP Measurement : a Forecast Combination Perspective

Aruoba, S. Borağan - 2011

widely-used income-side version GDPI . We propose and explore a "forecast combination" approach to combining them. We then …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013120293

A Cautionary Note on Using Industry Affiliation to Predict Income

Pischke, Jörn-Steffen - 2012

Many literatures investigate the causal impact of income on economic outcomes, for example in the context of intergenerational transmission or well-being and health. Some studies have proposed to use employer wage differentials and in particular industry affiliation as an instrument for income....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013100586

Overconfident Investors, Predictable Returns, and Excessive Trading

Daniel, Kent D. - 2016

Individuals and asset managers trade aggressively, resulting in high volume in asset markets, even when such trading results in high risk and low net returns. Asset prices display patterns of predictability that are difficult to reconcile with rational expectations–based theories of price...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012999987

Decision Fatigue and Heuristic Analyst Forecasts

Hirshleifer, David A. - 2018

firms and often issue several forecasts in a single day. We find that forecast accuracy declines over the course of a day as … closely with the consensus forecast, by self-herding (i.e., reissuing their own previous outstanding forecasts), and by … issuing a rounded forecast. Finally, we find that the stock market understands these effects and discounts for analyst …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012926415

Interpreting Prediction Market Prices as Probabilities

Wolfers, Justin - 2006

While most empirical analysis of prediction markets treats prices of binary options as predictions of the probability of future events, Manski (2004) has recently argued that there is little existing theory supporting this practice. We provide relevant analytic foundations, describing sufficient...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012780189

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