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Merging Simulation and Projection Approaches to Solve High-Dimensional Problems
Judd, Kenneth L. - 2012
We introduce an algorithm for solving dynamic economic models that merges stochastic simulation and projection … approaches: we use simulation to approximate the ergodic measure of the solution, we construct a fixed grid covering the support … support of the ergodic measure roughly uniformly. The proposed algorithm is tractable in problems with high dimensionality …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013098481
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Polanyi's Paradox and the Shape of Employment Growth
Autor, David H. - 2014
In 1966, the philosopher Michael Polanyi observed, "We can know more than we can tell... The skill of a driver cannot be replaced by a thorough schooling in the theory of the motorcar; the knowledge I have of my own body differs altogether from the knowledge of its physiology." Polanyi's...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013047399
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Selecting Directors Using Machine Learning
Erel, Isil - 2018
, have more past and current directorships, fewer qualifications, and larger networks than the directors the algorithm would …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012923716
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Machine Learning for Regularized Survey Forecast Combination : Partially-Egalitarian Lasso and its Derivatives
Diebold, Francis X. - 2018
Despite the clear success of forecast combination in many economic environments, several important issues remain incompletely resolved. The issues relate to selection of the set of forecasts to combine, and whether some form of additional regularization (e.g., shrinkage) is desirable. Against...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012911728
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The Promise and Pitfalls of Conflict Prediction : Evidence from Colombia and Indonesia
Bazzi, Samuel - 2019
Policymakers can take actions to prevent local conflict before it begins, if such violence can be accurately predicted. We examine the two countries with the richest available sub-national data: Colombia and Indonesia. We assemble two decades of fine-grained violence data by type, alongside...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012867902
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Answering the Queen : Machine Learning and Financial Crises
Fouliard, Jeremy; Howell, Michael J; Rey, Hélène - 2022
Financial crises cause economic, social and political havoc. Macroprudential policies are gaining traction but are still severely under-researched compared to monetary and "fiscal policy. We use the general framework of sequential predictions, also called online machine learning, to forecast...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014243066
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Demand Estimation with Machine Learning and Model Combination
Bajari, Patrick - 2015
We survey and apply several techniques from the statistical and computer science literature to the problem of demand estimation. We derive novel asymptotic properties for several of these models. To improve out-of-sample prediction accuracy and obtain parametric rates of convergence, we propose...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013028059
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A New Use of Importance Sampling to Reduce Computational Burden in Simulation Estimation
Ackerberg, Daniel A. - 2011
Method of Simulated Moments (MSM) estimators introduced by McFadden (1989)and Pakes and Pollard (1989) are of great use to applied economists. They are relatively easy to use even for estimating very complicated economic models. One simply needs to generate simulated data according to the model...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013127757
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Estimating Event Probabilities from Macroeconomic Models Using Stochastic Simulation
Fair, Ray C. - 2007
stochastic simulation. One can estimate, for example, the probability of a recession occurring within some fixed period in the … present procedure is that the probabilities estimated from the stochastic simulation are objective in the sense that they are …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012776706
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Approximately Normal Tests for Equal Predictive Accuracy in Nested Models
Clark, Todd E. - 2007
normal critical values will yield actual sizes close to, but a little less than, nominal size. Simulation evidence supports …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012778361