Showing 1 - 10 of 6,744
This paper exploits a data rich environment to provide direct econometric estimates of time-varying macroeconomic uncertainty, defined as the common volatility in the unforecastable component of a large number of economic indicators. Our estimates display significant independent variations from...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013075857
Current practice largely follows restrictive approaches to market risk measurement, such as historical simulation or … cross-fertilize the academic and practitioner communities, promoting improved market risk measurement technologies that draw … produce more accurate risk assessments, treating both portfolio-level and asset-level analysis. Asset-level analysis is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013106309
Policy makers and market participants alike wish to understand the amount, economic significance, and concentration of derivatives trading activity. This paper suggests that systematic measuring and reporting of margin by market participants, disaggregated by asset class, would provide more...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013088391
Long-run forecasts of economic variables play an important role in policy, planning, and portfolio decisions. We consider long-horizon forecasts of average growth of a scalar variable, assuming that first differences are second-order stationary. The main contribution is the construction of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013085495
This paper provides an empirical analysis of the risk of trading revenues of U.S. commercial banks. We collect … quarterly data on trading revenues, broken down by business line, as well as the Value at Risk-based market risk charge. The … across business lines. These low correlations do not corroborate systemic risk concerns. Neither is there evidence that the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012762521
of banks argue that compensation for bearing systematic risk is not part of bank output. We apply these models and find …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013224418
We propose a new measure of time-varying tail risk that is directly estimable from the cross section of returns. We … exploit firm-level price crashes every month to identify common fluctuations in tail risk across stocks. Our tail measure is … significantly correlated with tail risk measures extracted from S&P 500 index options, but is available for a longer sample since it …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013311916
We distinguish the measure of risk aversion from the slope coefficient in the linear relationship between the mean … excess return on a stock index and its variance. Even when risk aversion is constant, the latter can vary significantly with …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012774602
discussion of dependency ratios. Two alternative measures of age are explored: mortality risk and remaining life expectancy. With …. In a separate application of age measurement, I examine the consequences of stabilizing labor force participation by age …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012775839
We propose a Bayesian procedure for exploiting small, possibly long-lag linear predictability in the innovations of a finite order autoregression. We model the innovations as having a log-spectral density that is a continuous mean-zero Gaussian process of order 1/√T. This local embedding makes...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013131235