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In 2007, countries in the euro periphery were enjoying stable growth, low deficits, and low spreads. Then the financial crisis erupted and pushed them into deep recessions, raising their deficits and debt levels. By 2010, they were facing severe debt problems. Spreads increased and,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013072346
The prevailing view of the economic consequences of financing government deficits, as reflected in the recent economics literature and in recent public policy debates, reflects serious misunderstandings. Debt-financed deficits need not "crowd out" any private investment, and may even "crowd in"...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013233786
This note explores the sensitivity of the short-run savings effects ofgovernment deficits to assumptions about household planning horizons. Using alifecycle simulation model, we show that even though deficit policies shiftsizable tax burdens to future generations, individuals live long enough to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013229375
control inflation and influence the economy in the usual ways. The paper discusses models of fiscal limits and their …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013129132
The valuation of government debt is subject to strategic uncertainty, stemming from investors' sentiments. Pessimistic lenders, fearing default, bid down the price of debt. This leaves a government with a higher debt burden, increasing the likelihood of default and thus confirming the pessimism...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013224996
Why did the country that borrowed the most industrialize first? Earlier research has viewed the explosion of debt in 18th century Britain as either detrimental, or as neutral for economic growth. In this paper, we argue instead that Britain's borrowing boom was beneficial. The massive issuance...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013020642
Conventional wisdom in the field of international finance holds that the U.S. economy has become so open financiallly as to be characterized by perfect capital mobility: a highly elastic supply of foreign capital prevents the domestic rate of return from rising significantly above the world rate...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013229146
We propose a new approach to constructing inflation tracking portfolios. The key to this approach is the insight that … asset returns track expected inflation far better than they track current realized inflation. Thus, we can construct … portfolios that track next month's inflation much more closely than they track this month's inflation. We show this staggered …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013105462
This paper estimates expected future real interest rates and inflation rates from observed prices of UK government …-linked bonds. It assumes that expected log returns on all bonds are equal, and that expected real interest rates and inflation … inflation expectations forecast actual future inflation more accurately than nominal yields do. The estimated real interest rate …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012774964
extensive case study, we demonstrate how incorporating survey data on inflation expectations can address a number of otherwise …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012959381