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wages and prices to past inflation fails along several of these dimensions …) a persistent and hump-shaped response of inflation to a monetary policy shock, (ii) a large and persistent response of … shock, (v) non-inertial responses of inflation to non-monetary shocks, and (vi) a negative unconditional autocorrelation of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013014650
Inflation dynamics have been difficult to explain over the last decade. This paper explores if a more comprehensive … treatment of globalization can help. CPI inflation has become more synchronized around the world since the 2008 crisis, but core … and wage inflation have become less synchronized. Global factors (including commodity prices, world slack, exchange rates …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012858797
This paper investigates an economy in which there are short-term wage contracts that are re-negotiated under certain conditions. This paper determines the optimal frequency of wage re-negotiation and shows that it depends positively on measures of aggregate variability and Phillips curve slope....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013221119
relationship between wages and prices, so wage inflation has become a much less important determinant of price inflation … has evolved to study inflation in Japan. Our key finding is that labor market dynamics shifted after 1998 so that … correlations between labor market tightness and wages weakened noticeably. This change was accompanied in a break in the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013298204
There is growing concern that the COVID-19 pandemic may have severe, adverse effects on the health care sector, a sector of the economy that historically has been somewhat shielded from the business cycle. In this paper, we study one aspect of this issue by estimating the magnitude of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012833748
We study the effects of the temporary federal paid sick leave mandate that became effective April 1st, 2020 on ‘social distancing,' as proxied by individuals' physical mobility behavior gleaned from cellular devices. The national paid leave policy was implemented in response to the COVID-19...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012834401
I use a simple SIR model, augmented to include deaths, to elucidate how pandemic progression is affected by the control of contagion, and examine the key trade-offs that underlie policy design. I illustrate how the cost of reducing the "reproduction number" R0 depends on how it changes the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012834465
The Covid-19 pandemic has motivated a myriad of studies and proposals on how economic policy should respond to this colossal shock. But in this debate it is seldom recognized that the health shock is not entirely exogenous. Its magnitude and dynamics themselves depend on economic policies, and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012836417
epidemic diseases raised in their quarterly earnings conference calls. We construct text-based measures of the costs, benefits …, and risks listed firms in the US and over 80 other countries associate with the spread of Covid-19 and other epidemic … diseases. We identify which firms and sectors expect to lose/gain from a given epidemic and which are most affected by the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012837193
We show that unexpected changes in the trajectory of COVID-19 infections predict US stock returns, in real time. Parameter estimates indicate that an unanticipated doubling (halving) of projected infections forecasts next-day decreases (increases) in aggregate US market value of 4 to 11 percent,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012837801