/U.K. (1629-1812), U.K. (1813-1870) and U.S. (1871-2015). We show that dividend yields are stationary and consistently forecast … business cycle, with expected returns increasing in recessions. We also find that, except for the period after 1945, dividend … yields predict dividend growth rates …

This paper presents a bound on the variance of the price-dividend ratio and a decomposition of the variance of the … price-dividend ratio into components that reflect variation in expected future discount rates and variation in expected … future dividend growth. Unobserved discount rates needed to make the variance bound and variance decomposition hold are …

unconditional cross-sectional moments of household consumption growth and the moments of the risk-free rate, equity premium, price-dividend … ratio, and aggregate dividend and consumption growth. The model-implied risk-free rate and price-dividend ratio are …

between the log dividend-price ratio and mathematical expectations of future log real dividend changes and future real … dividend growth, measured real discount rates and unexplained factors in determining the dividend-price ratio …

We construct a price, dividend, and earnings series for the Industrials sector, the Utilities sector, and the Railroads …

firms and often issue several forecasts in a single day. We find that forecast accuracy declines over the course of a day as … closely with the consensus forecast, by self-herding (i.e., reissuing their own previous outstanding forecasts), and by … issuing a rounded forecast. Finally, we find that the stock market understands these effects and discounts for analyst …