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We show that unexpected changes in the trajectory of COVID-19 infections predict US stock returns, in real time. Parameter estimates indicate that an unanticipated doubling (halving) of projected infections forecasts next-day decreases (increases) in aggregate US market value of 4 to 11 percent,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012837801
What explains stock market behavior in the early weeks of the coronavirus pandemic? Estimates from a dynamic asset …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012823756
We consider several economic uncertainty indicators for the US and UK before and during the COVID-19 pandemic: implied … emerge. First, all indicators show huge uncertainty jumps in reaction to the pandemic and its economic fallout. Indeed, most …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012830476
Childhood vaccinations are an important input to disease prevention, but vaccination rates have declined over the last decade due largely to parental fears about vaccine dangers. Education campaigns on the safety of vaccines seem to have little impact. Anecdotal evidence on disease outbreaks...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012985902
corporate characteristics and stock price reactions to COVID-19 cases. We find that the pandemic-induced drop in stock prices …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013224962
The collapse of economic activity in 2020 from COVID-19 has been immense. An important question is how much of that resulted from government restrictions on activity versus people voluntarily choosing to stay home to avoid infection. This paper examines the drivers of the collapse using cellular...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012829790
This paper deals with COVID and macroprudential regulations in emerging markets. I document the build-up of a sturdy macroprudential structure during 2009-2019, and the relaxation of regulations in 2020-2021, as part of the effort to deal with the sanitary emergency. I show that in every...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013322217
COVID-19 pandemic. In fact, previous pandemics left only mild traces on the U.S. stock market. We use text-based methods to … pandemic. The evidence we amass suggests that government restrictions on commercial activity and voluntary social distancing …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012837802
There is growing concern that the COVID-19 pandemic may have severe, adverse effects on the health care sector, a … aspect of this issue by estimating the magnitude of the COVID-19 pandemic on use of outpatient health services. We use 2010 … pandemic is associated with about a 67 percent decline in the total number of outpatient visits per provider by the week of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012833748
We study the effects of the temporary federal paid sick leave mandate that became effective April 1st, 2020 on ‘social distancing,' as proxied by individuals' physical mobility behavior gleaned from cellular devices. The national paid leave policy was implemented in response to the COVID-19...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012834401