-range probability than is proposed by the expected utility model and risk-seeking behavior over quot;long-shotquot; odds is common …The appeal of expected utility theory as a basis for a descriptive model of risky decision making has diminished is a … tenets of EUT. In this paper, we explore the influence of probability on risky choice. by proposing and estimating a …

In line with the fallacy of riskification of uncertainty by which decision makers believe that the effects of … unpredictable phenomena can be captured accurately by probability distributions, organizational scholars commonly treat the … organizational inefficiency in dealing with uncertainty shocks—exogenous hazards whose welfare effects spread across industries and …

We review and extend the economic analysis of risk and uncertainty as it relates to behavior mitigating health shocks … for risk-sharing in health by pooling the health care spending risk. In a sense, medical innovation involves a current …

probabilistic terms: we are facing deep uncertainty or ambiguity rather than risk in the classical sense, rendering the classical …Uncertainty is intrinsic to climate change: we know that the climate is changing, but not precisely how fast or in what … available for reducing climate change. Furthermore the uncertainty about these issues is not readily quantified and expressed in …

This paper studies Pareto-optimal risk-sharing arrangements in a private information economy with aggregate uncertainty …

technologies under uncertainty. Specifically, given two technologies, one with lower costs at present, but the other with greater … uncertainty in the returns to R&D, how should one allocate the R&D budget? We develop a multi-stage stochastic dynamic programming … variance in the uncertainty in returns to R&D and with the skewness of the uncertainty. We also present an illustrative case …

We elicit subjective probability distributions from business executives about their own-firm outcomes at a one … collection, we develop and field a new monthly panel Survey of Business Uncertainty. The SBU began in 2014 and now covers about 1 …, firm-level growth expectations are highly predictive of realized growth rates. Second, subjective uncertainty is highly …

the dispersion of individual forecasts around these averages are interpreted as indicating "uncertainty." However …, while uncertainty is properly understood as referring to the diffuseness of the distributions of probabilities that … changes in GNP and the implicit price deflator in 1969-81. These data permit comparisons of related point and probability …