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We introduce a new, hybrid measure of stock return tail covariance risk, motivated by the under-diversified portfolio … return as in standard systematic risk measures. We document a positive and significant relation between hybrid tail … covariance risk (H-TCR) and expected stock returns, with an annualized premium of 9%, in contrast to the insignificant or …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013075854
Using climate change as a prototype motivating example, this paper analyzes the implications of structural uncertainty for the economics of low-probability high-impact catastrophes. The paper shows that having an uncertain multiplicative parameter, which scales or amplifies exogenous shocks and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012775805
A basic prediction of effcient risk-sharing is that relative consumption growth rates across countries or regions …, employing a newly constructed multi-country and multi-regional data set. Within countries, we find signifcant evidence for risk …. We identify this failure of risk sharing as a border effect. We find that the border effect is substantially (but not …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013121595
average risk tolerance across investors. The same constant applies to every real foreign investment held by every investor … market risk premia, an average of world market volatilities, and an average of exchange rate volatilities, where we take the … exchange risk approaches zero, the constant will be equal to one minus the ratio of the variance of the world market return to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013218727
because the former allows risk sharing across countries while the latter does not. The analysis is performed in a two … demonstrated that the ability to share risk across countries in the fixed rate regime does not necessarily lead to higher welfare … than the inability to share risk in the flexible rate regime …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013232193
exchange rate model, our analysis is based on either the risk-neutral PDF or arbitrage-based tests of target zones. The paper …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013224319
This paper provides new evidence in support of the idea that bouts of optimism and pessimism drive much of US business cycles. In particular, we begin by using sign-restriction based identification schemes to isolate innovations in optimism or pessimism and we document the extent to which such...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013117561
We show that there exists significant heterogeneity across US households in how uncertain they are in their expectations regarding personal and macroeconomic outcomes, and that uncertainty in expectations predicts households' choices. Individuals with lower income or education, more precarious...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012906788
This paper presents a model of business cycles driven by shocks to consumer expectations regarding aggregate productivity. Agents are hit by heterogeneous productivity shocks, they observe their own productivity and a noisy public signal regarding aggregate productivity. The shock to this public...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012760694
between the maximum daily return over the past one month (MAX) and expected stock returns. Average raw and risk …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012764338