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Does an observation constitute stronger evidence for a theory if it was made after rather than before the theory was … formulated, when it may have influenced the theory's construction? Philosophers have discussed this question (of quot … and then constructs a theory) versus structural models with formal econometric tests (where a model is constructed before …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012776741
randomized controlled trials (RCTs) to accumulate credible knowledge of what works, without over-reliance on questionable theory …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012757925
Macroeconomists have largely converged on method, model design, reduced-form shocks, and principles of policy advice. Our main disagreements today are about implementing the methodology. Some think New Keynesian models are ready to be used for quarter-to-quarter quantitative policy advice; we do...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012758420
This paper reviews the progress that the science of monetary policy has made over recent decades. This progress has significantly expanded the degree to which the practice of monetary policy reflects the application of a core set of quot;scientific principlesquot;. However, there remains, and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012759738
The purpose of this article is to demonstrate how a rich array of methods can be applied to increase the relevance of field experiments in public economics. Two cross-cutting themes are important in multiple phases of the research. First, greater statistical sophistication can draw more value...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012760378
I explore the equilibrium value implications of economic models that incorporate reactions to a stochastic environment. I propose a dynamic value decomposition (DVD) designed to distinguish components of an underlying economic model that influence values over long horizons from components that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012770669
Social and economic networks are ubiquitous, serving as contexts for job search, technology diffusion, the accumulation of human capital and even the formulation of norms and values. The systematic empirical study of network formation - the process by which agents form, maintain and dissolve...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013048060
explaining short-run fluctuations in GNP. Theory and the empirical evidence suggest that the existence of intellectual property …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013232435
on his approach to measurement and theory. The paper closes with the transcription of a brief autobiographical talk by …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013237578
In October 1993, the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences awarded the Nobel Prize in Economics to Robert William Fogel and Douglass Cecil North `for having renewed research in economic history.' The Academy noted that `they were pioneers in the branch of economic history that has been called the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013213453