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modern behavioral economics. This chapter reviews theory and evidence on this topic, with the goal of facilitating more … processes, biases in belief updating, the representativeness heuristic as a possible unifying theory, and interactions between … for (and against) each putative bias, and I highlight when and how different biases may be related to each other. The …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012908820
This paper discusses the definition and identification of external treatment effects and experimental designs capable of detecting these effects. External effects occur when the outcome of a given individual is affected by the treatment assignments of other individuals. The paper argues that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013242937
This paper develops an alternative approach to the widely used Difference-In-Difference (DID) method for evaluating the effects of policy changes. In contrast to the standard approach, we introduce a nonlinear model that permits changes over time in the effect of unobservables (e.g., there may...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013234399
In the Health and Retirement Survey respondents were asked about the chances they would live to 75 or to 85, and the chances they would work after age 62 or 65. We analyze the responses to determine if they behave like probabilities, if their averages are close to average probabilities in the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013223066
determine appropriate critical values, which can be several times standard levels. Overfitting bias also severely exacerbates … the multiple testing bias that arises when investigators consider more results than they present. Combining the best k out … of n candidate signals yields a bias almost as large as those obtained by selecting the single best of n …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013019512
beliefs have to sink in—being merely lagged, as the theory requires, is not sufficient. Past experiments with conflicting …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012916606
The paper evaluates the usefulness of a nonparametric approach to Bayesian inference by presenting two applications. The approach is due to Ferguson (1973, 1974) and Rubin (1981). Our first application considers an educational choice problem. We focus on obtaining a predictive distribution for...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013218983
We use data from the Survey of Professional Forecasters to compare point forecasts of GDP growth and inflation with the subjective probability distributions held by forecasters. We find that SPF forecasters summarize their underlying distributions in different ways and that their summaries tend...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012761765
The appeal of expected utility theory as a basis for a descriptive model of risky decision making has diminished is a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012760030
This paper considers causal inference and sample selection bias in non-experimental settings in which: (i) few units in …-treatment characteristics. We propose the use of propensity score matching methods and implement them using data from the NSW experiment … and compare the estimates of the treatment effect obtained using our methods to the benchmark results from the experiment …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013214591