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Will China Eat Our Lunch or Take Us Out to Dinner? Simulating the Transition Paths of the U.S., EU, Japan, and China
Fehr, Hans - 2009
This paper develops a dynamic, life-cycle, general equilibrium model to study the interdependent demographic, fiscal, and economic transition paths of China, Japan, the U.S., and the EU. Each of these countries/regions is entering a period of rapid and significant aging requiring major fiscal...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012767513
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A New Method of Estimating Potential Real GDP Growth : Implications for the Labor Market and the Debt/Gdp Ratio
Gordon, Robert J. - 2014
Forecasts for the two or three years after mid-2014 have converged on growth rates of real GDP in the range of 3.0 to 3.5 percent, a major stepwise increase from realized growth of 2.1 percent between mid-2009 and mid-2014. However, these forecasts are based on the demand for goods and services....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013048054
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Productivity and Potential Output Before, During, and after the Great Recession
Fernald, John G. - 2014
U.S. labor and total-factor productivity growth slowed prior to the Great Recession. The timing rules out explanations that focus on disruptions during or since the recession, and industry and state data rule out "bubble economy" stories related to housing or finance. The slowdown is located in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013052125
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The Economic Cost of Harboring Terrorism
Benmelech, Efraim - 2009
The literature on conflict and terrorism has paid little attention to the economic costs of terrorism for the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013155112
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The Economic Costs of Conflict : A Case-Control Study for the Basque Country
Abadie, Alberto; Gardeazabal, Javier - 2021
political terrorism in the 1970's. The subsequent economic evolution of this 'counterfactual' Basque Country without terrorism … is compared to the actual experience of the Basque Country. We find that, after the outbreak of terrorism, per capita GDP …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013244360
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The 9/11 Dust Cloud and Pregnancy Outcomes : A Reconsideration
Currie, Janet - 2014
The events of 9/11 released a million tons of toxic dust into lower Manhattan, an unparalleled environmental disaster. It is puzzling then that the literature has shown little effect of fetal exposure to the dust. However, inference is complicated by pre-existing differences between the affected...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013049372
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Cities and Warfare : The Impact of Terrorism on Urban Form
Glaeser, Edward L.; Shapiro, Jesse M. - 2021
What impact will terrorism have on America's cities? Historically, large-scale violence has impacted cities in three … to disperse. Finally, since warfare and terrorism often specifically target means of transportation, violence can …), but more commonly neither terrorism nor wars have significantly altered urban form. As such, across America the effect of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013234920
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How Do Nypd Officers Respond to Terror Threats?
Lehrer, Steven F.; Lepage, Louis Pierre - 2022
cannot rule out that it constitutes efficient policing given important differences between deterrence of terrorism versus …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013324685
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The Cyclical Sensitivity in Estimates of Potential Output
Coibion, Olivier - 2017
The fact that most of the persistent declines in output since the Great Recession have parlayed into equivalent declines in measures of potential output is commonly interpreted as implying that output will not return to previous trends. Using a variety of estimates of potential output for the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012951854
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The Neo-Fisher Effect in the United States and Japan
Uribe, Martín - 2017
I investigate the effects of an increase in the nominal interest rate on inflation and output in the United States and Japan during the postwar period. I postulate a structural autoregressive model that allows for transitory and permanent nominal and real shocks. I find that nominal...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012944633