perform poorly when knowledge is imperfect. In particular, policies that fail to maintain tight control over inflation are … prone to episodes in which the public's expectations of inflation become uncoupled from the policy objective and stagflation … effective communication of a central bank's inflation objective and of continued vigilance against inflation in anchoring …

people observe low inflation, they raise the possibility that the policymaker is committed to low inflation (type 1). This … equilibrium the policymaker of type 1 delivers surprisingly low inflation -- with corresponding costs to the economy -- over an … extended interval. The type 2 person mimics this outcome for awhile, but shift seventually to high inflation. This high …

-recession trend, suggesting hysteresis. Second, while inflation has decreased, it has decreased less than anticipated, suggesting a … breakdown of the relation between inflation and activity. To examine the first, we look at 122 recessions over the past 50 years … unemployment on inflation, for given expected inflation, decreased until the early 1990s, but has remained roughly stable since …

appointment of Volcker marked a change in the conduct of monetary policy, but inflation dropped only when fiscal policy … accommodated this change two years later. In fact, a disinflationary attempt of the monetary authority leads to more inflation if … been confident about the switch, the Great Inflation would not have occurred and debt would have been higher. This is …

heterogeneous inflation expectations. Expectations are updated through social dynamics and, with heterogeneity, not all firms choose … to operate, putting downward pressure on realized inflation. Our model rationalizes why countries stuck at the zero lower … bound have had a hard time increasing inflation without being aggressive. The same model also predicts that announcing an …

policy anticipations and expected inflation effects are formally specified and compared to the estimated responses …'s short-run monetary policy. The expected inflation hypothesis implies that weekly money surprises should have persistent …

stable inflation behavior will be generated -- is incorrect. This is because New Keynesian (NK) models are typically … consistent with the existence of RE paths with explosive inflation rates (in addition to one or more stable paths) that normally … imply the absence of explosive inflation. That result does not, however, justify negative conclusions about NK analysis. For …

This paper analyzes a reputational equilibrium for inflation under the generic assumption that monetary policy reflects … proximate preferences for low expected inflation and positive unexpected inflation. The paper stresses the qualitative … implication that in a reputational equilibrium the policymaker behaves as if it is concerned about controlling inflation, even …