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with a 50 basis point rise in the inflation indexed bond return differential in favor of the foreign country and an 50 … yields on long maturity inflation - indexed bonds. This relationship can be interpreted as defining the fair value of the … exchange rate that will prevail in any model or real world economy in which inflation indexed bonds are traded. An advantage of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013087887
Debt sustainability is fundamentally a probabilistic concept: Debt is rarely sustainable with probability one. We propose an index of external debt sustainability that reflects this uncertainty. Namely we construct the index as the probability that, at the current exchange rate, net external...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012941936
The world's first known inflation-indexed bonds were issued by the Commonwealth of Massachusetts in 1780 during the … Revolutionary War. These bonds were invented to deal with severe wartime inflation and with angry discontent among soldiers in the U … to justify indexation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013230809
This paper estimates expected future real interest rates and inflation rates from observed prices of UK government … nominal and index-linked bonds. The estimation method takes account of imperfections in the indexation of UK index …-linked bonds. It assumes that expected log returns on all bonds are equal, and that expected real interest rates and inflation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012774964
these securities represent the only true long-run hedge against inflation risk. CPI-linked bonds make possible the creation … inflation-protected retirement annuities. The introduction of index-linked bonds eliminates one of the main obstacles to the … indexation of benefits in private pension plans. A firm could hedge the risk associated with a long-term indexed liability by …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012763488
We consider the puzzling behavior of interest rates and inflation in the United States and the United Kingdom between … World War I; the average inflation rate was 3.8 percentage points higher in the second period than in the first. Yet nominal … consistent with rational expectations if inflation were not forecastable, and indeed univariate tests show little sign of serial …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013216511
fluctuations in expected inflation, is why a strong Fisher effect occurs only for certain periods but not for others. This paper … resolves this puzzle by reexamining the relationship between inflation and interest rates with modern time-series techniques …. Recognition that the level of inflation and interest rates may contain stochastic trends suggests that the apparent ability of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013224871
This paper critically re-examines theory and evidence on the relation- ship between interest rates and inflation. It … concludes that there is no evidence that interest rates respond to inflation in the way that classical or Keynesian theories … inflation in the short or long run. During the post-war period interest rates do appear to be affected by inflation. However …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013324088
Twenty five years after the publication of the second edition, this paper describes and evaluates the Contributions to monetary and macroeconomics made in Don Patinkin's Money, Interest, and Prices (MIP). Its first accomplishment was to settle definitively many issues, such as the valid and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013230788
This paper develops two models, one involving risk neutrality and the other risk aversion, which suggest that inflation … evidence supports the hypothesis that inflation uncertainty affects interest rates. Interpreted in terms of the risk neutral … model, the empirical results suggest that inflation uncertainty has a negative impact on nominal interest rates and a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013310253