heat reduces non-agricultural productivity, but less so than in agriculture, implying that hot countries could adapt to … perversely pulls labor into agriculture where its productivity suffers most and reallocation exacerbates the global decline in …

sets of results. First, we calculate lower bounds on the minimax risk for estimating the regression function at (i) a point … achieves the optimal rates suggested by our risk bounds when an appropriate bandwidth sequence is chosen. This optimal rate …

. Using within-county variation in weather, we estimate the effect of daily temperature on annual income in United States …

future weather outcomes. We compare these market expectations to climate model output for the years 2002 to 2018 as well as … observed weather station data across eight cities in the US. All datasets show statistically significant and comparable warming … trends. Nonparametric estimates suggest that trends in weather markets follow climate model predictions and are not based on …

historic data on weather, climate, economic activity and other variables. This has been an active area of research for several … long-run) estimated, the type of weather or climate variation used, and the pros and cons of the approach …

I formally relate the consequences of climate change to the time series variation in weather extensively explored by … reduced-form weather regressions in more general environments. Applying this new method, I find that an additional 2°C of …

Value at Risk has become the standard measure of market risk employed by financial institutions for both internal and … methodologies developed so far give satisfactory solutions. Interpreting Value at Risk as a quantile of future portfolio values … conditional on current information, we propose a new approach to quantile estimation which does not require any of the extreme …