Showing 1 - 10 of 2,577
Volatility permeates modern financial theories and decision making processes. As such, accurate measures and good … forecasts of future volatility are critical for the implementation and evaluation of asset pricing theories. In response to this …, a voluminous literature has emerged for modeling the temporal dependencies in financial market volatility at the daily …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012774886
We compare the out-of-sample forecasting performance of univariate homoskedastic, GARCH, autoregressive and nonparametric models for conditional variances, using five bilateral weekly exchange rates for the dollar, 1973-1989. For a one week horizon, GARCH models tend to make slightly more...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013225431
volatility and growth can be accounted for by the real common factor, which is proportional to world growth in our empirical …. We develop a multi-country version of the Lucas tree model with time-varying volatility and show that in addition to … the cross country variations of the realized volatility of equity returns. Using this theoretical insight, two common …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012927028
intratemporal relative price such as the terms of trade and possibly an intertemporal price such as the world interest rate. This … paper presents an empirical framework in which multiple commodity prices and the world interest rate transmit world … disturbances. Estimates on a panel of 138 countries over the period 1960-2015 indicate that world shocks explain on average 33 …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012979352
This study quantifies the importance of a Global Financial Cycle (GFCy) for capital flows. We use capital flow data dis-aggregated by direction and type between 1990Q1 and 2015Q5 for 85 countries, and conventional techniques, models and metrics. Since the GFCy is an unobservable concept, we use...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012948455
Capital flow and commodity cycles have long been connected with economic crises. Sparse historical data, however, has made it difficult to connect their timing. We date turning points in global capital flows and commodity prices across two centuries and provide estimates from alternative data...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012999461
Guided by a macroeconomic model in which commodity prices are endogenously determined, we apply a new factor-based identification strategy to decompose the historical sources of changes in commodity prices and global economic activity. The model yields a factor structure for commodity prices and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013056593
common component, we find evidence for a `world business cycle' as well as evidence for a distinct European common component …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013322115
cyclical pattern. Over that cycle, world asset prices, leverage, and capital flows move in concert with global growth …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014259726
. The paper provides an overview of the new globalization trends in the world and in Israel, with emphasis on the role of … side only. On the demand side, the desire to invest has plunged, while people across the rich world are now saving much of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013250932