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efforts, several structural sources of volatility remain, and new ones have emerged as a result of the new and otherwise … better economic environment. In this paper I review these sources through the recent experiences of Argentina, Chile and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013324598
This work explores how Argentina overcame the Great Depression and asks whether active macroeconomic interventions made …-standard orthodoxy after the final suspension of convertibility in 1929. As elsewhere, fiscal policy in Argentina was conservative, and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013221515
misaligned exchange rates, appear to have suffered more macroeconomic volatility and also grown more slowly during the postwar … more 'extractive' instit utions from their colonial past were more likely to experience high volatility a nd economic … policies appear to have only a minor impact on volatility and crises. This suggests that distortionary macroeconomic policies …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013224669
We use more than one century of Argentine and Mexican data to estimate the structural parameters of a small-open-economy real-business-cycle model driven by nonstationary productivity shocks. We find that the RBC model does a poor job at explaining business cycles in emerging countries. We then...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012760602
sample of four emerging small open economies: Argentina, Ecuador, Venezuela, and Brazil. We postulate a stochastic volatility …This paper shows how changes in the volatility of the real interest rate at which small open emerging economies borrow … motivate our investigation, we document the strong evidence of time-varying volatility in the real interest rates faced by a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012757576
, and show that it has significant explanatory power for the evolution of macroeconomic volatility. We define "fundamental …" volatility as the volatility that would arise from an economy made entirely of idiosyncratic microeconomic shocks, occurring … different sectors vary over time (in a way we directly measure), while the volatility of those sectors remains constant. We find …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013137610
volatility literature, namely its relative neglect of the connection between macroeconomic fundamentals and asset return … volatility. We progress by analyzing a broad international cross section of stock markets covering approximately forty countries …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012758496
Is monetary policy less effective at increasing real output during periods of high volatility than during normal times …? In this paper, I argue that greater volatility leads to an increase in aggregate price flexibility so that nominal … stimulus mostly generates inflation rather than output growth. To do this, I construct price-setting models with "volatility …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013080209
shocks using methods from the news shocks literature, the analysis finds that innovations in realized stock market volatility … economy. Moreover, investors have historically paid large premia to hedge shocks to realized but not implied volatility. A … model in which fundamental shocks are skewed left can match those facts. Aggregate volatility matters, but it is the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012948093
Business cycles reflect changes over time in the amount of trade between individuals. In this paper we show that incorporating explicitly intra-temporal gains from trade between individuals into a macroeconomic model can provide new insight into the potential mechanisms driving economic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013121592