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Despite the clear success of forecast combination in many economic environments, several important issues remain incompletely resolved. The issues relate to selection of the set of forecasts to combine, and whether some form of additional regularization (e.g., shrinkage) is desirable. Against...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012911728
Financial crises cause economic, social and political havoc. Macroprudential policies are gaining traction but are still severely under-researched compared to monetary and "fiscal policy. We use the general framework of sequential predictions, also called online machine learning, to forecast...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014243066
for the development of public-private partnerships, as recognized in November 2002 when the Terrorism Risk Insurance Act … of 2002 (TRIA) was passed. This paper shows, however, that the temporary insurance system established by TRIA is neither … current level of demand for insurance coverage has remained low and we discuss some factors that may contribute to it. After …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012755813
Policymakers can take actions to prevent local conflict before it begins, if such violence can be accurately predicted. We examine the two countries with the richest available sub-national data: Colombia and Indonesia. We assemble two decades of fine-grained violence data by type, alongside...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012867902
estimation. We derive novel asymptotic properties for several of these models. To improve out-of-sample prediction accuracy and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013028059
predictions. Simpler prediction heuristics show more promise for predicting insurance choices across different conditions …Can measured risk attitudes and associated structural models predict insurance demand? In an experiment (n = 1,730), we … insurance choices over different loss probabilities and prices. The insurance choices show coherence and some correlation with …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013312498
hedge funds, banks, brokers, and insurance companies based on principal components analysis and Granger-causality tests. We … the finance and insurance industries. These measures can also identify and quantify financial crisis periods, and seem to …, banks, insurance companies, and brokers …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013139889
The accumulation of international reserves by emerging markets raises the question of how to best utilize these funds. This paper explores two routes through which the pooling of reserves could enhance stability and welfare. First, the reserve pool could be used for emergency lending in response...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012760717
pushed AIG to the brink of bankruptcy. AIG used securities lending to transform insurance company assets into residential … solvency of the life insurance companies. AIG also sold insurance on multi-sector collateralized debt obligations, backed by …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013024150
paper the central role played by limited domestic development in ex-ante (insurance) and ex-post (spot) financial markets in … generating this collective undervaluation of external resources and insurance. Within this structure, this paper studies several …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013219968