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Measuring Uncertainty About Long-Run Prediction
Müller, Ulrich K. - 2013
Long-run forecasts of economic variables play an important role in policy, planning, and portfolio decisions. We consider long-horizon forecasts of average growth of a scalar variable, assuming that first differences are second-order stationary. The main contribution is the construction of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013085495
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Measuring Predictability : Theory and Macroeconomic Applications
Diebold, Francis X.; Kilian, Lutz - 2021
We propose a measure of predictability based on the ratio of the expected loss of a short-run forecast to the expected loss of a long-run forecast. This predictability measure can be tailored to the forecast horizons of interest, and it allows for general loss functions, univariate or...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013217613
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A Multiple Indicators Model for Volatility Using Intra-Daily Data
Gallo, Giampiero M.; Engle, Robert F. - 2021
Many ways exist to measure and model financial asset volatility. In principle, as the frequency of the data increases, the quality of forecasts should improve. Yet, there is no consensus about a true' or best' measure of volatility. In this paper we propose to jointly consider absolute daily...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013246085
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Information, Measurement, and Prediction in Economics
Zarnowitz, Victor - 2022
This paper examines the flow of production and use of economic information and analyzes the effects of measurement … presumption that the measurement errors are random: Systematic errors are frequent and their sources and forms vary so much that … decade),measurement of short-term changes in the economy is particularly difficult and current signals are apt to be often …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013321628
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The Curley Effect
Glaeser, Edward L.; Shleifer, Andrei - 2021
James Michael Curley, a four-time mayor of Boston, used wasteful redistribution to his poor Irish constituents and incendiary rhetoric to encourage richer citizens to emigrate from Boston, thereby shaping the electorate in his favor. Boston as a consequence stagnated, but Curley kept winning...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013224309
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Wage and Productivity Premiums in Sub-Saharan Africa
Van Biesebroeck, Johannes - 2013
accurate test. The results indicate that equality holds strongly for the most developed country in the sample (Zimbabwe), but …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012753873
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The Disability Employment Puzzle : A Field Experiment on Employer Hiring Behavior
Ameri, Mason - 2015
People with disabilities have low employment and wage levels, and some studies suggest employer discrimination is a contributing factor. Following the method of Bertrand and Mullainathan (2003), new evidence is presented from a field experiment that sent applications in response to 6,016...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013015109
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Trade, Offshoring, and the Invisible Handshake
Karabay, Bilgehan - 2010
We study the effect of globalization on the volatility of wages and worker welfare in a model in which risk is allocated through long-run employment relationships (the 'invisible handshake'). Globalization can take two forms: International integration of commodity markets (i.e., free trade) and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013152563
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Was There Really a Hawthorne Effect at the Hawthorne Plant? An Analysis of the Original Illumination Experiments
Levitt, Steven D. - 2010
The "Hawthorne effect," a concept familiar to all students of social science, has had a profound influence both on the direction and design of research over the past 75 years. The Hawthorne effect is named after a landmark set of studies conducted at the Hawthorne plant in the 1920s. The first...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013152614
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The Value of Working Conditions in the United States and Implications for the Structure of Wages
Maestas, Nicole - 2018
This paper documents variation in working conditions among workers in the United States, presents new estimates of how workers value these conditions, and assesses the impact of working conditions on estimates of the wage structure and inequality. We use evidence from a series of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012908816