probabilities of the full range of specific outcomes, allowing us to measure uncertainty, assess its driving forces, and compare … this measure of uncertainty with the dispersion of point-estimates among individual forecasters (a measure of disagreement …

parameterized unrestricted model towards a parsimonious naïve benchmark, and thus reduce estimation uncertainty. This paper studies …

The U.S. economy currently faces a truly extraordinary degree of uncertainty as a consequence of the COVID-19 pandemic … present a set of illustrative scenarios, including a baseline scenario with a rapid but incomplete recovery this year (an … upward-tilting checkmark), a benign scenario in which an effective cure or vaccine becomes available and facilitates a nearly …

uncertainty and can undermine the ability of monetary policy to control inflation and influence real economic activity in the …

We study the effects of changes in uncertainty about future fiscal policy on aggregate economic activity. Fiscal … consolidation inevitable, there is considerable uncertainty about the policy mix and timing of such budgetary adjustment. To … evaluate the consequences of this increased uncertainty, we first estimate tax and spending processes for the U.S. that allow …

subsequent surveys. These findings, plus the inescapable fact that point forecasts reveal nothing about the uncertainty that … probabilistic expectations and derive measures of central tendency and uncertainty, as we do here …