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-2009. Inflation, state fragility, external debt, and commodity terms of trade volatility were positively associated, while trade … importance of economic fundamentals in the pricing of sovereign risk varies over time. The key factors are trade openness and …, and this gap widened during and after the crisis. Trade openness was the biggest factor behind Asia's lower sovereign …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013083389
In the past three decades, governments in emerging markets have accumulated large amounts of international reserves, especially those with fixed exchange rates. We propose a theory of reserve accumulation that can account for these facts. Using a model of endogenous sovereign default with...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013299203
When a sovereign faces the risk of debt default, it may be tempted to expropriate the private sector. This may be one reason for why international investment in private companies has to take into account the sovereign risk. But the likelihood of a transfer from the sovereign risk to corporate...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013054883
When a bank experiences a negative shock to its equity, one way to return to target leverage is to sell assets. If …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013097784
Discussions of financial risk often fail to distinguish between risks that are consciously borne and those that are not. To understand the breeding conditions for financial crises the prime focus of concern should not be simply on large risk-taking per se, but on the unintended, or unanticipated...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012786498
This paper examines how increased uncertainty about an emerging market's international reserves affects the willingness of foreign investors to supply international credits. We illustrate the relevance of this concern for South Korea during the recent financial crisis. Using available...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012763799
We take a first pass at quantifying the magnitudes of debt relief achieved through default and restructuring in two distinct samples: 1979-2010, focusing on credit events in emerging markets, and 1920-1939, documenting the official debt hangover in advanced economies that was created by World...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013045576
Can bad news about COVID-19 induce negative expectations on sovereign credit risks? We investigate the factors driving credit default swap (CDS) spreads of emerging market sovereigns around the outbreak of COVID-19. Using 2014-2019 data, we estimate a two-factor model of global and regional...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013236709
This paper introduces the concept of debt intolerance,' which manifests itself in the extreme duress many emerging markets experience at debt levels that would seem manageable by advanced country standards. We argue that safe' external debt-to-GNP thresholds for debt intolerant countries are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013249721
In this paper we study the question of debt sustainability from a risk management perspective. The debt accumulation equation for any country involves variables that are stochastic and closely intertwined. When these aspects are taken into consideration the notion of debt sustainability is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012754612