areas of India, and that farmers respond more strongly to the forecast where there is more forecast skill and not at all … when there is no skill. We show, using an IV strategy in which the Indian government forecast of monsoon rainfall serves as … estimated. Using the full rainfall distribution and our profit function estimates, we find that Indian farmers on average under …

An important aspect of corporate governance is the assessment of managers. When managers vary in ability, determining …? This paper begins an exploration of that issue by considering the consequence of one such bias, the base-rate fallacy, for … due to the base-rate fallacy, they can also benefit from this bias …

forecast confidence interval during times of high market uncertainty; however, ex post miscalibration is worst during periods …

In this paper we show that omitted variables and publication bias lead to severely biased estimates of the value of a …

application of adult women's decisions to undertake mammography to evaluate the importance of present bias and naivety in the … under-utilization of this preventive health care. Our results show evidence for both present bias and naivety …

Outcome bias occurs when an evaluator considers ex-post outcomes when judging whether a choice was correct, ex-ante. We … formalize this cognitive bias in a simple model of distorted Bayesian updating. We then examine strategy changes made by …