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have real rates fallen? This note computes a measure of the "world" real interest rate and, where possible, a measure of … the implied future real rate. It also makes public our estimates of the "world" real interest rate so they can be used by …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013059096
countries around the world, covering issues such as freedom of association, the regulation of work contracts, employee benefits …) and competitiveness (World Economic Forum). Although our pool of respondents differs greatly from the conservative … foundations and business leaders who contribute respectively to the Fraser Institute and World Economic Forum reports, the GLS and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013240988
The standard source for pre-WWII global freight rate trends is the Isserlis British tramp shipping index. We think it … the precipitous decline in nominal freight rates before the World War I, but it also extends the series to the 1940s …. Furthermore, our new series is linked to the post-World War II era (documented by David Hummels), so that we can be more precise …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013292457
Building on Baker, Bloom and Davis (2016), I construct a monthly index of Global Economic Policy Uncertainty (GEPU …) from January 1997. The GEPU Index is a GDP-weighted average of national EPU indices for 16 countries that account for two …-thirds of global output. Each national EPU index reflects the relative frequency of own-country newspaper articles that contain …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012981099
Though the real exchange rate is a key price for most economies, our understanding of its determinants is still incomplete. This paper studies the implications of status competition in the marriage market for the real exchange rate. In theory, a rise in the sex ratio (increasing relative surplus...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013130254
This paper provides indirect tests of the hypothesis that exchange rate movements may be largely coterminus with changes in preferences for holding claims on different countries. It is argued that changes in country preferences will be reflected systematically in the price of gold and, hence,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013135311
We examine the impact of renminbi revaluation on firm valuations, considering two surprise announcements of changes in China's exchange rate policy in 2005 and 2010 and data on 6,050 firms in 44 countries. Renminbi appreciation has a positive effect on firms exporting to China but little...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013118251
I explore the behavior of asset prices and the exchange rate in a two-country world. When the large country has bad …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013118842
A key precursor of twentieth-century financial crises in emerging and advanced economies alike was the rapid buildup of leverage. Those emerging economies that avoided leverage booms during the 2000s also were most likely to avoid the worst effects of the twenty-first century's first global...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013121927
This paper evaluates out-of-sample exchange rate predictability of Taylor rule models, where the central bank sets the interest rate in response to inflation and either the output or the unemployment gap, for the euro/dollar exchange rate with real-time data before, during, and after the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013101336