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There is growing concern that the COVID-19 pandemic may have severe, adverse effects on the health care sector, a sector of the economy that historically has been somewhat shielded from the business cycle. In this paper, we study one aspect of this issue by estimating the magnitude of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012833748
We study the effects of the temporary federal paid sick leave mandate that became effective April 1st, 2020 on ‘social distancing,' as proxied by individuals' physical mobility behavior gleaned from cellular devices. The national paid leave policy was implemented in response to the COVID-19...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012834401
I use a simple SIR model, augmented to include deaths, to elucidate how pandemic progression is affected by the control of contagion, and examine the key trade-offs that underlie policy design. I illustrate how the cost of reducing the "reproduction number" R0 depends on how it changes the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012834465
The Covid-19 pandemic has motivated a myriad of studies and proposals on how economic policy should respond to this colossal shock. But in this debate it is seldom recognized that the health shock is not entirely exogenous. Its magnitude and dynamics themselves depend on economic policies, and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012836417
epidemic diseases raised in their quarterly earnings conference calls. We construct text-based measures of the costs, benefits …, and risks listed firms in the US and over 80 other countries associate with the spread of Covid-19 and other epidemic … diseases. We identify which firms and sectors expect to lose/gain from a given epidemic and which are most affected by the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012837193
We show that unexpected changes in the trajectory of COVID-19 infections predict US stock returns, in real time. Parameter estimates indicate that an unanticipated doubling (halving) of projected infections forecasts next-day decreases (increases) in aggregate US market value of 4 to 11 percent,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012837801
that are not tested under current guidelines), is not well estimated in the literature because tests for the coronavirus …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012838354
over the next 12-18 months. An SIR model is a Markov model of the spread of an epidemic in a population in which the total … recovered (or dead) and no longer contagious (R). How an epidemic plays out over time is determined by the transition rates …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012838984
How might COVID-19 affect human capital and wellbeing in the long run? The COVID-19 pandemic has already imposed a heavy human cost—taken together, this public health crisis and its attendant economic downturn appear poised to dwarf the scope, scale, and disruptiveness of most modern...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012823387
This paper addresses the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic by providing timely and accurate information on the impact of the current pandemic on income and poverty to inform the targeting of resources to those most affected and assess the success of current efforts. We construct new...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012824912