market in a general-equilibrium model of the world economy. We analyze the impact of the advent of fracking on the volatility …We use a new micro data set that covers all oil fields in the world to estimate a stochastic industry-equilibrium model … of oil prices. Our model predicts a large decline in this volatility …

post-World-War-II oil shocks reviewed include the Suez Crisis of 1956-57, the OPEC oil embargo of 1973-1974, the Iranian …

world rate of interest(intertemporal terms of trade effects) and, for rigid wages, changes in employment. Thus Industria … gains from the intertemporal terms of trade effect if it is a net borrower and the world rate of interest falls. Precise … conditions for whether the world rate of interest falls or rises are given.We also show that Industria may gain from subsidizing …

If commercial producers or financial investors use futures contracts to hedge against commodity price risk, the … arbitrageurs who take the other side of the contracts may receive compensation for their assumption of nondiversifiable risk in the … which the duration of observed contracts changes with each observation. We document significant changes in oil futures risk …

evidence for changes in persistence and in volatility of price across three well defined periods. We argue that historically …, the real price of oil has tended to be highly persistent and volatile whenever rapid industrialization in a major world … account for the increased volatility of oil price we observe in these periods …

We reconsider the empirical links between volatility and growth between 1970 and 2007. There is a strong and … their economies. The amount of volatility driven by these external factors is highly correlated, cross-sectionally, with the … overall amount of volatility in GDP growth. There is also a strong correlation between a country's average growth rate and the …

data on stock market levels and volatility as proxies for the first and second moments of business conditions. We then use …