-side uncertainty. Using term structure and macroeconomic data, we find sizable effects of uncertainty on risk premia and business cycle … fluctuations. Both demand-side and supply-side uncertainty imply large contractions in real activity and an increase in term premia …, but supply-side uncertainty has larger effects on inflation and investment. We introduce a novel analytical decomposition …

uncertainty affects interest rates. Both models give rise to essentially the same interest rate equation for estimation. Empirical … evidence supports the hypothesis that inflation uncertainty affects interest rates. Interpreted in terms of the risk neutral … uncertainty has a negative impact on nominal interest rates. The expected real rate is not of direct interest in a risk averse …

games, beauty contests, and their applications. We elaborate on the distinct effects of strategic uncertainty relative to … fundamental uncertainty. We demonstrate the potential fragility of workhorse macroeconomic models to relaxations of common …

the most important sources of individual risk and cross-sectional heterogeneity? Second, what are individuals' key … channels of insurance? Third, how does idiosyncratic risk interact with aggregate risk? …

setting, an increase in uncertainty about future shocks causes significant contractions in the economy and may lead to non … outcomes. Fluctuations in uncertainty and the zero lower bound help our model match the unconditional and stochastic volatility …

We study a novel policy tool—interest rate uncertainty—that can be used to discourage inefficient capital inflows and … identify the trade-offs faced in navigating between external balance and price stability. The interest rate uncertainty policy … discourages short-term inflows mainly through portfolio risk and precautionary saving channels. A markup channel generates net FDI …

We provide evidence on the relationship between aggregate uncertainty and the macroeconomy. Identifying uncertainty … are robustly followed by contractions, while shocks to forward-looking uncertainty have no significant effect on the … realization of volatility, rather than uncertainty about the future, that has been associated with declines …

We characterize and measure a long-run risk return tradeoff for the valuation of financial cash flows that are exposed … inputs from vector autoregressions to quantify this relationship; and we study the long-run risk differences in aggregate …