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Empirical studies suggest that fluctuations in the level and volatility of the world interest rate (as measured by the US treasury bill rate) affect sovereign spreads in emerging economies. We incorporate an estimated time-varying process for the world interest rate (with both level and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013405012
Our paper explores a transmission mechanism of monetary policy through bond market. Based on the assumption of delayed responses of economic agents to monetary shocks, we derive a system of equations relating the term structure of interest rates with the past history of money growth rates and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013230219
The trilemma of international finance explains why interest rates in countries that fix their exchange rates and allow unfettered cross-border capital flows are largely outside the monetary authority's control. Using historical panel-data since 1870 and using the trilemma mechanism to construct...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012964905
-side uncertainty. Using term structure and macroeconomic data, we find sizable effects of uncertainty on risk premia and business cycle … fluctuations. Both demand-side and supply-side uncertainty imply large contractions in real activity and an increase in term premia …, but supply-side uncertainty has larger effects on inflation and investment. We introduce a novel analytical decomposition …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012906311
games, beauty contests, and their applications. We elaborate on the distinct effects of strategic uncertainty relative to … fundamental uncertainty. We demonstrate the potential fragility of workhorse macroeconomic models to relaxations of common …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013224988
setting, an increase in uncertainty about future shocks causes significant contractions in the economy and may lead to non … outcomes. Fluctuations in uncertainty and the zero lower bound help our model match the unconditional and stochastic volatility …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013002240
We study a novel policy tool—interest rate uncertainty—that can be used to discourage inefficient capital inflows and … identify the trade-offs faced in navigating between external balance and price stability. The interest rate uncertainty policy … discourages short-term inflows mainly through portfolio risk and precautionary saving channels. A markup channel generates net FDI …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013309796
uncertainty affects interest rates. Both models give rise to essentially the same interest rate equation for estimation. Empirical … evidence supports the hypothesis that inflation uncertainty affects interest rates. Interpreted in terms of the risk neutral … uncertainty has a negative impact on nominal interest rates. The expected real rate is not of direct interest in a risk averse …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013310253
policy, economic growth, and separately, shocks to risk premia. Our approach exploits high-frequency comovement of stocks and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012911101
This paper has three parts. Part 1 constructs a classical economic model of inflation, augmented by a complete set of financial markets; I call this the core monetary model. Part 2 develops a series of calibrated examples to illustrate how the core monetary model explains the history of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013107515