Measured productivity is strongly procyclical. Real business cycle theories suggest that actual fluctuations in … productivity are the source of fluctuations in aggregate output. Keynesian theories maintain that fluctuations in aggregate output … to explain the procyclicality of productivity. If observed productivity shocks are true productivity shocks, a function …

competition from demand shocks in export markets – and the induced product mix reallocations – induce productivity changes within … the firm. We then empirically test for this connection between the demand shocks and the productivity of multi …-product firms exporting to those destinations. We find that the effect of those demand shocks on productivity is substantial – and …

using first-order approximations. In our estimated medium-scale DSGE model, a loss of confidence about productivity works …

permit estimation using standard Bayesian techniques. Applying our framework to an estimated New-Keynesian business cycle …

and capital are important for explaining procyclical productivity. Here I present two simple and direct tests of these …

-adjusted total factor productivity series, which we take as a measure of exogenous productivity. In contrast to the predictions of … the model, positive productivity shocks are estimated to be more expansionary at the ZLB compared to normal times. However …, in line with the predictions of the basic model, positive productivity shocks have a stronger negative effect on …

by a shock that does not affect productivity in the short run -- and therefore does not look like a standard technology … shock -- but affects productivity with substantial delay -- and therefore does not look like a monetary shock. One … precede productivity growth by a few years. Moreover, we show that this shock explains about 50\% of business cycle …

expenditures increase measured productivity. These departures provide a novel quantitative theory to explain recessions like those …