What risks do asset price bubbles pose for the economy? This paper studies bubbles in housing and equity markets in 17 … countries over the past 140 years. History shows that not all bubbles are alike. Some have enormous costs for the economy, while … others blow over. We demonstrate that what makes some bubbles more dangerous than others is credit. When fueled by credit …

Standard tests find that no bubbles are present in the stock price data for the last one hundred years. In contrast … claim that the boom and crash of 1929 represented a bubble. We develop a model that permits us to extract an estimate of the …

simultaneously present in the U.S. during the 1990s. We also show that such expansions can be welfare improving but they can crash …. The latter is more likely if bubbles develop along the expansionary path. These (rational) bubbles can emerge even when …

"conventional" view on the effects of monetary policy on bubbles, as well as with the predictions of bubbleless models. We also …

History is important to the study of financial bubbles precisely because they are extremely rare events, but history … can be misleading. The rarity of bubbles in the historical record makes the sample size for inference small. Restricting … the beginning of the 20th century. I find the probability of a crash conditional on a boom is only slightly higher than …