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Prediction, Judgment and Complexity : A Theory of Decision Making and Artificial Intelligence
Agrawal, Ajay K. - 2018
. In this paper, we explore the consequences of improved prediction in decision-making. To do so, we adapt existing models … of decision-making under uncertainty to account for the process of determining payoffs. We label this process of … on whether the improvements in prediction enable automated decision-making. We discuss the implications of improved …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012929013
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The Technological Elements of Artificial Intelligence
Taddy, Matthew Alan - 2018
We have seen in the past decade a sharp increase in the extent that companies use data to optimize their businesses. Variously called the `Big Data' or `Data Science' revolution, this has been characterized by massive amounts of data, including unstructured and nontraditional data like text and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012918102
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Machine Learning for Regularized Survey Forecast Combination : Partially-Egalitarian Lasso and its Derivatives
Diebold, Francis X. - 2018
Despite the clear success of forecast combination in many economic environments, several important issues remain incompletely resolved. The issues relate to selection of the set of forecasts to combine, and whether some form of additional regularization (e.g., shrinkage) is desirable. Against...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012911728
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Selecting Directors Using Machine Learning
Erel, Isil - 2018
Can algorithms assist firms in their decisions on nominating corporate directors? We construct algorithms to make out-of-sample predictions of director performance. Tests of the quality of these predictions show that directors predicted to do poorly indeed do poorly compared to a realistic pool...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012923716
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Managing Intelligence : Skilled Experts and Ai in Markets for Complex Products
Gruber, Jonathan; Handel, Benjamin; Kina, Samuel H.; … - 2021
-optimal. Our analysis leverages the large-scale implementation of an AI-based decision support tool in a private Medicare exchange … consumers $1260 on average. The addition of AI-based decision support improves outcomes by $278 on average and substantially … decision support associated with a 21% reduction in call time for enrollment …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013315315
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A Comparison of Linear and Nonlinear Univariate Models for Forecasting Macroeconomic Time Series
Stock, James H.; Watson, Mark W. - 2021
A forecasting comparison is undertaken in which 49 univariate forecasting methods, plus various forecast pooling procedures, are used to forecast 215 U.S. monthly macroeconomic time series at three forecasting horizons over the period 1959 - 1996. All forecasts simulate real time implementation,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013218715
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Exploring the Impact of Artificial Intelligence : Prediction Versus Judgment
Agrawal, Ajay K. - 2018
providing a particular set of tasks – prediction tasks. Prediction about uncertain states of the world is an input into decision … could also increase the variance of outcomes as well. We consider the role of human judgment in decision-making as … decisions to machines even when the decision would be superior with human input …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012918625
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Smart Machines and Long-Term Misery
Sachs, Jeffrey D. - 2012
Are smarter machines our children's friends? Or can they bring about a transfer from our relatively unskilled children to ourselves that leaves our children and, indeed, all our descendants - worse off? This, indeed, is the dire message of the model presented here in which smart machines...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013096141
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The Promise and Pitfalls of Conflict Prediction : Evidence from Colombia and Indonesia
Bazzi, Samuel - 2019
Policymakers can take actions to prevent local conflict before it begins, if such violence can be accurately predicted. We examine the two countries with the richest available sub-national data: Colombia and Indonesia. We assemble two decades of fine-grained violence data by type, alongside...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012867902
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Answering the Queen : Machine Learning and Financial Crises
Fouliard, Jeremy; Howell, Michael J; Rey, Hélène - 2022
Financial crises cause economic, social and political havoc. Macroprudential policies are gaining traction but are still severely under-researched compared to monetary and "fiscal policy. We use the general framework of sequential predictions, also called online machine learning, to forecast...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014243066