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Why You Should Never Use the Hodrick-Prescott Filter
Hamilton, James D. - 2017
Here's why. (1) The HP filter produces series with spurious dynamic relations that have no basis in the underlying data-generating process. (2) Filtered values at the end of the sample are very different from those in the middle, and are also characterized by spurious dynamics. (3) A statistical...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012955932
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Unit Root Tests are Useful for Selecting Forecasting Models
Diebold, Francis X.; Kilian, Lutz - 2021
We study the usefulness of root tests as diagnostic tools for selecting forecasting models. Difference stationary and trend stationary models of economic and financial time series often imply very different predictions, so deciding which model to use is tremendously important for applied...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013224678
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Seasonal Adjustment with Measurement Error Present
Hausman, Jerry A.; Watson, Mark W. - 2021
Seasonal adjustment procedures attempt to estimate the sample realizations of an unobservable economic time series in the presence of both seasonal factors and irregular factors. In this paper we consider a factor which has not been considered explicitly in previous treatments of seasonal...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013248433
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Seasonal Adjustment of NIPA Data
Wright, Jonathan H. - 2018
seasonality in the seasonally adjusted data as published before this update. The evidence for residual seasonality is weaker in … data, and this entirely avoids residual seasonality. The average absolute difference between my seasonally adjusted real …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012912544
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Religious Competition and Reallocation : The Political Economy of Secularization in the Protestant Reformation
Cantoni, Davide - 2017
Using novel microdata, we document an unintended, first-order consequence of the Protestant Reformation: a massive reallocation of resources from religious to secular purposes. To understand this process, we propose a conceptual framework in which the introduction of religious competition shifts...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012945605
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Hold-Up, Asset Ownership, and Reference Points
Hart, Oliver - 2010
We study two parties who desire a smooth trading relationship under conditions of value and cost uncertainty. A rigid contract fixing price works well in normal times since there is nothing to argue about. However, when value or cost is exceptional, one party will hold up the other , damaging...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012759758
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Property Rights to Frontier Land and Minerals : Us Exceptionalism
Libecap, Gary D. - 2018
Property rights are the most fundamental institution in any society. They determine who has decision-making authority … historians have long recognized the importance of secure property rights for economic outcomes. Other political economy …, philosophy, historical, and legal literatures emphasize different, but critical attributes based on how property rights are …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012920373
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State Versus Private Ownership
Shleifer, Andrei - 2021
Private ownership should generally be preferred to public ownership when the incentives to innovate and to contain costs must be strong. In essence, this is the case for capitalism over socialism, explaining the dynamic vitality' of free enterprise. The great economists of the 1930s and 1940s...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013239155
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On the Ends of the State : Stationary Bandits and the Time Horizon in Eastern Congo
Henn, Soeren; Mugaruka, Christian; Ortiz, Miguel; … - 2022
armed actors' property rights over stealing from that economy are secure. By 2009, armed actors taxed, administered, and … violently expropriating the same villages. The findings suggest that the security of property rights over stealing, hence the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014264760
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How Financial Literacy and Impatience Shape Retirement Wealth and Investment Behaviors
Hastings, Justine S. - 2011
Two competing explanations for why consumers have trouble with financial decisions are gaining momentum. One is that people are financially illiterate since they lack understanding of simple economic concepts and cannot carry out computations such as computing compound interest, which could...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013130966