Relying upon a standard New Keynesian DSGE, we propose an explanation for two empirical findings in the international finance literature. First, the unbiasedness hypothesis – the proposition that expost exchange rate depreciation matches interest differentials – is rejected much more...

Using the "trilemma indexes" developed by Aizenman et al. (2008) that measure the extent of achievement in each of the three policy goals in the trilemma--monetary independence, exchange rate stability, and financial openness--we examine how policy configurations affect macroeconomic...

Uncovered interest parity (UIP) has been almost universally rejected in studies of exchange rate movements, although there is little consensus on why it fails. In contrast to previous studies, which have used relatively short-horizon data, we test UIP using interest rates on longer-maturity...

We develop a methodology that intuitively characterizes the choices countries have made with respect to the trilemma during the post Bretton-Woods period. The paper first outlines the new metrics for measuring the degree of exchange rate flexibility, monetary independence, and capital account...

We evaluate the recent evidence for real interest parity, focusing on long-term yields. Examining the data on financial instruments of various maturities across the G7 countries, we find substantial differences in the degree of real interest equalization measured at different horizons. In...

The hypothesis that interest rate differentials are unbiased predictors of future exchange rate movements has been almost universally rejected in empirical studies. In contrast to previous studies, which have used short-horizon data, we test this hypothesis using interest rates on...

An emerging new literature brings unique ideas from corporate finance to the study of international trade and investment. Insights about differences in the development of financial institutions across countries, the role of financial constraints, and the use of internal capital markets are...

This paper uses newly available data on Chinese trade flows to establish novel and confirm existing stylized facts about firm heterogeneity in trade. First, the bulk of exports and imports are captured by a few multi-product firms that transact with a large number of countries. Second, the...

We provide evidence that host-country financial development affects the global operations of multinational firms. Financially advanced economies attract more affiliates of U.S. multinationals. Financially developed host countries also feature higher aggregate affiliate sales to the local market,...

This paper provides firm-level evidence that credit constraints restrict international trade flows and affect the sectoral pattern of multinational activity. Using detailed customs data from China, we show that foreign affiliates and joint ventures have better export performance than private...