tracking current economic conditions. We apply the technique to extract real-time measures of inflation, output, employment …

on stocks and bonds are useful in forecasting post-war US output, consumption, labor income, inflation, stock returns …, bond returns, and Treasury bill returns. These forecasting relationships define portfolios that track market expectations …

available for other indexes. Third, we control for past GDP growth and inflation and thus focus on the predictive power of …

prominent role in the conduct of monetary policy. A modified Taylor Rule would depend on a long-term measure of inflation having …-emptive anti-inflation policy in the middle of the expansions when housing is not so sensitive to interest rates, making it less … likely that anti-inflation policies would be needed near the ends of expansions when housing is very interest rate sensitive …

from theoretical predictions arise from agents' expectations about future prices, which are almost self-fulfilling and yet …