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Household Stock Market Beliefs and Learning
Kezdi, Gabor; Willis, Robert J. - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2011
This paper characterizes heterogeneity of the beliefs of American households about future stock market returns, provides an explanation for that heterogeneity and establishes its relationship to stock holding behavior. We find substantial belief heterogeneity that is puzzling since households...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009372446
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Product Recalls, Imperfect Information, and Spillover Effects: Lessons from the Consumer Response to the 2007 Toy Recalls
Freedman, Seth M.; Kearney, Melissa Schettini; … - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2009
In 2007, the Consumer Product Safety Commission (CPSC) issued 276 recalls of toys and other children's products, a sizeable increase from previous years. The overwhelming majority of the 2007 toy recalls were due to high levels of lead content and almost all of these toys were manufactured in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005061601
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Inflation Dynamics and Time-Varying Volatility: New Evidence and an Ss Interpretation
Vavra, Joseph S. - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2013
stimulus mostly generates inflation rather than output growth. To do this, I construct price-setting models with "volatility …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010785596
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A Sparsity-Based Model of Bounded Rationality
Gabaix, Xavier - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2011
This paper defines and analyzes a "sparse max" operator, which is a less than fully attentive and rational version of the traditional max operator. The agent builds (as economists do) a simplified model of the world which is sparse, considering only the variables of first-order importance. His...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008927008
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Timing and Quantity of Consumer Purchases and the Consumer Price Index
Griffith, Rachel; Leibtag, Ephraim; Nevo, Aviv; … - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2008
A common approach to measuring price changes is to look at the change of the expenditure needed to purchase a fixed basket of goods. It is well-known that this approach suffers from problems and creates several biases in the measurement of price changes faced by consumers. Substitution and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005575441
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Inflation Expectations and Readiness to Spend: Cross-Sectional Evidence
Bachmann, Rüdiger; Berg, Tim O.; Sims, Eric R. - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2012
There have recently been suggestions for monetary policy to engineer higher inflation expectations so as to stimulate … current spending. But what is the empirical relationship between inflation expectations and spending? We use the underlying … micro data from the Michigan Survey of Consumers to test whether increased inflation expectations are indeed associated with …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011188542
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Are Chinese Growth and Inflation Too Smooth? Evidence from Engel Curves
Nakamura, Emi; Steinsson, Jon; Liu, Miao - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2014
China has experienced remarkably stable growth and inflation in recent years according to official statistics. We … alternative estimates of Chinese growth and inflation. Our estimates suggest that official statistics present a smoothed version … of reality. Official inflation rose in the 2000's, but our estimates indicate that true inflation was still higher and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011203049
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Uncertainty as Commitment
Ordonez, Guillermo L.; Nosal, Jaromir - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2013
Time-inconsistency of no-bailout policies can create incentives for banks to take excessive risks and generate endogenous crises when the government cannot commit. However, at the outbreak of financial problems, usually the government is uncertain about their nature, and hence it may delay...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010969240
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The Economics of Faith: Using an Apocalyptic Prophecy to Elicit Religious Beliefs in the Field
Augenblick, Ned; Cunha, Jesse M.; Bó, Ernesto Dal; … - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2012
We model religious faith as a "demand for beliefs," following the logic of the Pascalian wager. We then demonstrate how an experimental intervention can exploit standard elicitation techniques to measure religious belief by varying prizes associated with making choices contrary to one's belief...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010969243
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Time Varying Risk Aversion
Guiso, Luigi; Sapienza, Paola; Zingales, Luigi - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2013
We use a repeated survey of an Italian bank's clients to test whether investors' risk aversion increases following the 2008 financial crisis. We find that both a qualitative and a quantitative measure of risk aversion increases substantially after the crisis. After considering standard...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010950696