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Using firm-level survey data for the West German manufacturing sector, this paper revisits the technology-driven business cycle hypothesis for the case of aggregate investment. We construct a survey-based measure of technology shocks to gauge their contribution to short-run investment...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010969200
Are firms' expectations systematically too optimistic or too pessimistic? Does it matter? We use micro data from the West German manufacturing subset of the IFO Business Climate Survey to infer quarterly production changes at the firm level and combine them with production expectations over a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010969204
We use a quantitative equilibrium model with houses, collateralized debt and foreign borrowing to study the impact of global imbalances on the U.S. economy in the 2000s. Our results suggest that the dynamics of foreign capital flows account for between one fourth and one third of the increase in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010969208
Structural transformation refers to the reallocation of economic activity across the broad sectors agriculture, manufacturing and services. This review article synthesizes and evaluates recent advances in the research on structural transformation. We begin by presenting the stylized facts of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010969359
We introduce a general framework to analyze the trade-off between education and family size. Our framework incorporates parental preferences for birth order and delivers theoretically consistent birth order and family size effects on children's educational attainment. We develop an empirical...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010969380
This paper studies the distribution of employment growth when firms adjust asymmetrically to dispersed but correlated signals. If hiring decisions respond more to bad news than to good news, both aggregate conditional volatility ("macro-volatility") and the cross sectional dispersion of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010950903
What determines firm growth over the life-cycle? Exploiting unique firm panel data on internal organization, balance sheets and innovation, representative of the entire Canadian economy, we study recent theories that examine life-cycle patterns for firm growth. These theories include...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010951103
drop in mortgage defaults, an increase in new financing of durable consumption (auto purchases) of more than 10% in … relative terms, and an overall improvement in household credit standing. New financing of durable consumption by borrowers with … deleveraging response that can significantly restrict the ability of monetary policy to stimulate these households' consumption …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010951393
This paper investigates the role that the entry and exit of heterogeneous firms plays in shaping aggregate fluctuations in economic activity. In so doing, it develops a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model in which procyclical entry and countercyclical exit along a real business cycle...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009294909
an increase in output and consumption. Financial fragility builds up over time as information about counterparties decays … incentives to produce information, asymmetric information becomes a threat and there is a decline in output and consumption. A …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009421979