This paper uses a novel teat to see whether the Herse (1985) and Woo (1985) models are consistent with the variability of the deutschemark - dollar exchange rate 1974-1984. The answer, perhaps surprisingly, is yes. Both models, however, explain the month to month variability as resulting in a...

This paper establishes an inequality that may be used to test the null hypothesis that a stock price equals the expected present discounted value of its dividend stream, with a constant discount rate. The inequality states that if this hypothesis is true, the variance of the innovation in the...

We propose two new procedures for comparing the mean squared prediction error (MSPE) of a benchmark model to the MSPEs of a small set of alternative models that nest the benchmark. Our procedures compare the benchmark to all the alternative models simultaneously rather than sequentially, and do...

A simple real linear-quadratic inventory model is used to determine how cost and demand shocks interacted to cause fluctuations in aggregate GNP and inventories in the U.S., 1947-1986. Cost shocks appear to be the predominant source of fluctuations in inventories, and are largely responsible for...

We use recent research on estimation and testing in the presence of unit roots to argue that Hall's (1978) t and F tests of whether consumption is predicted by lagged income, or by lags of consumption beyond the first, are asymptotically valid. A Monte Carlo experiment suggests that the...

This paper compares the cyclical and secular behavior of Japanese and U.S. inventories at the aggregate and sectoral level, 1967-1987. While, as is well known, U.S. inventories are sharply procyclical, Japanese inventories are only mildly procyclical. In neither country do inventory and sales...

An aggregate demand - aggregate supply framework is used to analyze the effects of Japanese monetary policy, 1973:1-1990:8. It is found that money supply shocks contribute relatively little to output variability over the sample as a whole. Nor do these shocks seem to be particularly marked...

Casual examination of annual postwar data on inventories and aggregate output for seven developed countries -- Canada, France, West Germany, Italy, Japan, United Kingdom, United States -- suggests that in these countries the primary function of aggregate inventories is not to smooth aggregate...

It is shown that GNP will have an autoregressive root very close to unity in a variant of Taylor's (1980a,b) overlapping wage contracts model, for stylized versions of simple money supply rules and plausible values for the model's parameters. In this variant, monetary policy is the only reason...

A simple real model is used to decompose movements of aggregate inventories and output in Japan during 1975 to 1987 to three components, one due to cost shocks, one due to demand shocks, and one due to' shocks from abroad. Cost shocks are estimated to account for about one tenth of the movement...