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Bachmann, Rüdiger; Zorn, Peter - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2013

Using firm-level survey data for the West German manufacturing sector, this paper revisits the technology-driven business cycle hypothesis for the case of aggregate investment. We construct a survey-based measure of technology shocks to gauge their contribution to short-run investment...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010969200

What We Know and Do Not Know About the Natural Rate of Unemployment

Blanchard, Olivier; Katz, Lawrence F. - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 1996

Over the past three decades, a large amount of research has attempted to identify the determinants of the natural rate of unemployment. It is this body of work we assess in this paper. We reach two main conclusions. First, there has been considerable theoretical progress over the past 30 years....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005718798

News Shocks

Barsky, Robert B.; Sims, Eric R. - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2009

We implement a new approach for the identification of "news shocks" about future technology. In a VAR featuring a … measure of aggregate technology and several forward-looking variables, we identify the news shock as the shock orthogonal to … technology innovations that best explains future variation in technology. In the data, news shocks account for the bulk of low …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005027105

Prices and Supply Disruptions during Natural Disasters

Cavallo, Alberto Felipe; Rigobon, Roberto; Cavallo, Eduardo - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2013

We study the daily behavior of supermarket prices and product availability following two recent natural disasters: the 2010 earthquake in Chile and the 2011 earthquake in Japan. In both cases there was an immediate and persistent effect on product availability. The number of goods available for...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011105941

Firms' Optimism and Pessimism

Bachmann, Rüdiger; Elstner, Steffen - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2013

Are firms' expectations systematically too optimistic or too pessimistic? Does it matter? We use micro data from the West German manufacturing subset of the IFO Business Climate Survey to infer quarterly production changes at the firm level and combine them with production expectations over a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010969204

The Effects of the Saving and Banking Glut on the U.S. Economy

Primiceri, Giorgio; Tambalotti, Andrea; Justiniano, … - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2013

We use a quantitative equilibrium model with houses, collateralized debt and foreign borrowing to study the impact of global imbalances on the U.S. economy in the 2000s. Our results suggest that the dynamics of foreign capital flows account for between one fourth and one third of the increase in...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010969208

Growth and Structural Transformation

Rogerson, Richard; Valentinyi, Akos; Herrendorf, Berthold - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2013

Structural transformation refers to the reallocation of economic activity across the broad sectors agriculture, manufacturing and services. This review article synthesizes and evaluates recent advances in the research on structural transformation. We begin by presenting the stylized facts of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010969359

Education, Birth Order, and Family Size

Bagger, Jesper; Birchenall, Javier A.; Mansour, Hani; … - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2013

We introduce a general framework to analyze the trade-off between education and family size. Our framework incorporates parental preferences for birth order and delivers theoretically consistent birth order and family size effects on children's educational attainment. We develop an empirical...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010969380

Slow to Hire, Quick to Fire: Employment Dynamics with Asymmetric Responses to News

Schneider, Martin; Ilut, Cosmin; Kehrig, Matthias - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2014

signals. If hiring decisions respond more to bad news than to good news, both aggregate conditional volatility ("macro …. Fluctuations in both macro and micro volatility emerge endogenously in response to news shocks and do not require exogenous changes …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010950903

Sources of Firm Life-Cycle Dynamics: Differentiating Size vs. Age Effects

Kueng, Lorenz; Yang, Mu-Jeung; Hong, Bryan - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2014

What determines firm growth over the life-cycle? Exploiting unique firm panel data on internal organization, balance sheets and innovation, representative of the entire Canadian economy, we study recent theories that examine life-cycle patterns for firm growth. These theories include...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010951103

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