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Globalization has made it possible for labor in developing countries to augment labor in the developed world, without having to relocate, in ways not thought possible only a few decades ago. We argue that this large increase in the developed world's effective labor supply, triggered by...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008610972
ideas. The coroner's evidence consists of the small standard deviation of the core inflation rate in the past two decades … despite substantial volatility of the unemployment rate, and in particular the common tendency of PC inflation equations to … predict ever greater amounts of negative inflation (i.e., deflation) over the years of labor-market slack since 2008 …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010951448
innovations, and negatively correlated with inflation innovations. The disinflationary nature of news shocks is consistent with …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005027105
We use an agent-based computational approach to show how inflation can worsen macroeconomic performance by disrupting … the mechanism of exchange in a decentralized market economy. We find that increasing the trend rate of inflation above 3 … significant negative effect of trend inflation on output even when such an effect exists in reality. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010821728
In the data, asset prices exhibit large negative moves at frequencies of about 18 months. These large moves are puzzling as they do not coincide, nor are they followed by any significant moves in the real side of the economy. On the other hand, we find that measures of investor's uncertainty...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005775065
This paper illustrates that evaluating alternate abatement polices that affect the growth path of an economy on the basis of their effects on asset valuation may not be welfare enhancing. We show that the class of abatement polices considered in the integrated assessment literature are robust...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010821892
We propose a new method of testing asset pricing models that relies on using quantities rather than prices or returns. We use the capital flows into and out of mutual funds to infer which risk model investors use. We derive a simple test statistic that allows us to infer, from a set of candidate...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011144243
Recently a market in options based on CPI inflation (inflation caps and floors) has emerged in the US. This paper uses … quotes on these derivatives to construct probability densities for inflation. We study how these pdfs respond to news … empirical pricing kernels. The options-implied densities assign considerably more mass to extreme inflation outcomes (either …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011276419
to the fact that both bond and equity yields commove strongly and positively with expected inflation. While inflation … commoves with nominal bond yields for well-known reasons, the positive correlation between expected inflation and equity yields … uncertainty about real growth prospects and habit -- based risk version. In the US, high expected inflation has tended to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005025656
In this paper, we review Otmar Issing's career as the ECB's inaugural chief economist and we document many notable successes. We try to infer some general principles that contributed to these successes and draw some lessons. In doing so, we review the evidence using Woodford%u2019s (2003) recent...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005710386