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Macroeconomics has not done well in recent years: The standard models didn't predict the Great Recession; and even said it couldn't happen. After the bubble burst, the models did not predict the full consequences. The paper traces the failures to the attempts, beginning in the 1970s, to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010951037
In recent decades, advanced economies have experienced low and stable inflation and long periods of liquidity trap. We … which inflation is fixed and not determined by a forward-looking Phillips curve. With wealth in the utility, the Euler … equation is modified and we can obtain steady-state equilibria with a liquidity trap, positive inflation, and labor market …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010951069
of "local-to-frictionless" equilibria predicts mild inflation, no output reduction and negative multipliers during the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010951170
Relying upon a standard New Keynesian DSGE, we propose an explanation for two empirical findings in the international finance literature. First, the unbiasedness hypothesis – the proposition that expost exchange rate depreciation matches interest differentials – is rejected much more...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011276433
This paper is part of a broader project that provides a microfoundation to the General Theory of J.M. Keynes. I call this project 'old Keynesian economics' to distinguish it from new-Keynesian economics, a theory that is based on the idea that to make sense of Keynes we must assume that prices...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005084591
Every year has large demand and supply shifts associated with the seasons, regardless of the phase of the business cycle. Based on measures dating back to the 1940s, the seasonal shifts reject the hypotheses that demand shifts affect employment outcomes significantly more in recession years than...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008565077
New Keynesian models of price setting under monopolistic competition involve two kinds of inefficiency: the price level is too high because firms ignore an aggregate demand externality, and when there are costs of changing prices, price stickiness may be an equilibrium response to changes in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005710421
The New-Keynesian aggregate supply derives from micro-foundations an inflation-dynamics model very much like the … tradition in the monetary literature. Inflation is primarily affected by: (i) economic slack; (ii) expectations; (iii) supply … shocks; and (iv) inflation persistence. This paper extends the New Keynesian aggregate supply relationship to include also …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005710840
This paper presents a model of the macroeconomy that reformulates what I take to be two important ideas from Keynes General Theory. The first is that there may be a continuum of steady state unemployment rates. The second is that beliefs select an equilibrium. I argue that search and matching...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005720521
In the data, prices change both temporarily and permanently. Standard Calvo models focus on permanent price changes and take one of two shortcuts when confronted with the data: drop temporary changes from the data or leave them in and treat them as permanent. We provide a menu cost model that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005829600