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Was This Time Different? Fiscal Policy in Commodity Republics
Cespedes, Luis Felipe; Velasco, Andrés - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2013
We revisit the issue of fiscal procyclicality in commodity-rich nations -commodity republics in the nomenclature of this paper. Since commodity prices are plausibly a main driver of fiscal policy outcomes in these countries, we focus on the behavior of fiscal variables across the commodity...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010969315
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Government Debt and Banking Fragility: The Spreading of Strategic Uncertainty
Cooper, Russell; Nikolov, Kalin - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2013
This paper studies the interaction of government debt and financial markets. Both markets are fragile: excessively responsive to fundamentals and prone to strategic uncertainty. This interaction, termed a ʽdiabolic loopʼ, is driven by government willingness to bail out banks and the resulting...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010969354
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Political Booms, Financial Crises
Ordonez, Guillermo L.; Herrera, Helios; Trebesch, Christoph - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2014
We show that political booms, measured by the rise in governments' popularity, predict financial crises above and beyond other better-known early warning indicators, such as credit booms. This predictive power, however, only holds in emerging economies. We show that governments in emerging...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010969377
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Solomonic Separation: Risk Decisions as Productivity Indicators
Wagner, Alexander F.; Zeckhauser, Richard; Miller, Nolan - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2012
A principal provides budgets to agents (e.g., divisions of a firm or the principal's children) whose expenditures provide her benefits, either materially or because of altruism. Only agents know their potential to generate benefits. We prove that if the more "productive" agents are also more...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010785616
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Does Federal Financial Aid Affect College Enrollment? Evidence from Drug Offenders and the Higher Education Act of 1998
Lovenheim, Michael F.; Owens, Emily G. - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2013
In 2001, amendments to the Higher Education Act made people convicted of drug offenses ineligible for federal financial aid for up to two years after their conviction. Using rich data on educational outcomes and drug charges in the NLSY 1997, we show that this law change had a large negative...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010950693
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Foresight and Information Flows
Leeper, Eric; Walker, Todd B.; Yang, Shu-Chun Susan - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2011
News--or foresight--about future economic fundamentals can create rational expectations equilibria with non-fundamental representations that pose substantial challenges to econometric efforts to recover the structural shocks to which economic agents react. Using tax policies as a leading example...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009652882
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Public Consumption Over the Business Cycle
Bachmann, Ruediger; Bai, Jinhui - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2011
where the provision of a public consumption good is decided upon endogenously and in a time-consistent fashion. A simple … U.S. non-defense government consumption expenditures. However, such a model fails to match other important features of … the business cycle dynamics of public consumption, which comes out as not persistent enough and too synchronized with the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009223328
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Government Policy and Ownership of Financial Assets
Rydqvist, Kristian; Spizman, Joshua; Strebulaev, Ilya A. - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2011
Since World War II, direct stock ownership by households across the globe has largely been replaced by indirect stock ownership by financial institutions. We argue that tax policy is the driving force. Using long time-series from eight countries, we show that the fraction of household ownership...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009325539
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Optimal Debt Management
Barro, Robert J. - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 1995
proportional levy on consumption. In a simple benchmark case, optimal debt management entails the issue of indexed consols. More … generally, payouts on debt would also be contingent on aggregate consumption and the level of government spending. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005710655
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Capital, Interest, and Aggregate Intertemporal Substitution
Mulligan, Casey - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2002
distinguish Fisherian from non-Fisherian interpretations of consumption-interest rate comovements. I so measure the interest rate … using U.S. national accounts data, and find consumption growth to be both interest elastic and forecastable with tax and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005718416