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The Effects of Exposure to Better Neighborhoods on Children: New Evidence from the Moving to Opportunity Experiment

Chetty, Raj; Katz, Lawrence F.; Hendren, Nathaniel - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2015

The Moving to Opportunity (MTO) experiment offered randomly selected families living in high-poverty housing projects housing vouchers to move to lower-poverty neighborhoods. We present new evidence on the impacts of MTO on children's long-term outcomes using administrative data from tax...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011276428

The Impact of Family Income on Child Achievement: Evidence from the Earned Income Tax Credit

Dahl, Gordon B.; Lochner, Lance - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2008

Past estimates of the effect of family income on child development have often been plagued by endogeneity and measurement error. In this paper, we use an instrumental variables strategy to estimate the causal effect of income on children's math and reading achievement. Our identification derives...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005714375

DSGE Model-Based Forecasting of Non-modelled Variables

Schorfheide, Frank; Sill, Keith; Kryshko, Maxym - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2009

This paper develops and illustrates a simple method to generate a DSGE model-based forecast for variables that do not explicitly appear in the model (non-core variables). We use auxiliary regressions that resemble measurement equations in a dynamic factor model to link the non-core variables to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005718736

Land Reform and Sex Selection in China

Li, Hongbin; Almond, Douglas; Zhang, Shuang - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2013

Following the death of Mao in 1976, abandonment of collective farming lifted millions from poverty and heralded sweeping pro-market policies. How did China's excess in male births respond to rural land reform? In newly-available data from over 1,000 counties, a second child following a daughter...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010950798

A Revealed Preference Approach to Measuring Hunger and Undernutrition

Jensen, Robert T.; Miller, Nolan H. - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2010

Caloric intake and minimum calorie thresholds are widely used in developing countries to assess hunger and nutrition, and to construct poverty lines. However, it is generally recognized that the sufficiency of an individual's caloric intake cannot be determined, due to: a lack of consensus on...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008727869

Estimators for Persistent and Possibly Non-Stationary Data with Classical Properties

Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; Ng, Serena; Mikusheva, Anna - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2011

This paper considers a moments based non-linear estimator that is root-T consistent and uniformly asymptotically normal irrespective of the degree of persistence of the forcing process. These properties hold for linear autoregressive models, linear predictive regressions, as well as certain...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009294897

Can Oil Prices Forecast Exchange Rates?

Rogoff, Kenneth S; Rossi, Barbara; Ferraro, Domenico - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2012

This paper investigates whether oil prices have a reliable and stable out-of-sample relationship with the Canadian/U.S dollar nominal exchange rate. Despite state-of-the-art methodologies, we find little systematic relation between oil prices and the exchange rate at the monthly and quarterly...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011227945

Efficient Prediction of Excess Returns

Faust, Jon; Wright, Jonathan - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2008

price movements around macroeconomic news announcements. These "surprises" cannot be used directly in forecasting--they are … not observed at the time that the forecast is made--but can nonetheless improve forecasting accuracy by reducing parameter … of forecasting excess bond and equity returns. We find substantial improvements in out-of-sample forecast accuracy for …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005720382

Measuring Uncertainty about Long-Run Prediction

Watson, Mark W.; Mueller, Ulrich - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2013

Long-run forecasts of economic variables play an important role in policy, planning, and portfolio decisions. We consider long-horizon forecasts of average growth of a scalar variable, assuming that first differences are second-order stationary. The main contribution is the construction of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010796670

A New Method of Estimating Potential Real GDP Growth: Implications for the Labor Market and the Debt/GDP Ratio

Gordon, Robert J. - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2014

Forecasts for the two or three years after mid-2014 have converged on growth rates of real GDP in the range of 3.0 to 3.5 percent, a major stepwise increase from realized growth of 2.1 percent between mid-2009 and mid-2014. However, these forecasts are based on the demand for goods and services....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010950750

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