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International Prices and Exchange Rates
Burstein, Ariel; Gopinath, Gita - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2013
We survey the recent empirical and theoretical developments in the literature on the relation between prices and exchange rates. After updating some of the major findings in the empirical literature we present a simple framework to interpret this evidence. We review theoretical models that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010618286
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Financial Crisis and the Paradox of Under- and Over-Regulation
Aizenman, Joshua - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2009
This paper illustrates the paradox of prudential under-regulation in an economy that adopts financial reform, a reform which exposes the economy to future financial crises. There is individual-uncertainty about the crisis incidence, and the probability of the crisis is updated sequentially...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005025653
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On The Need For Fiscal Discipline in an Union
Aizenman, Joshua - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 1994
This paper investigates the behavior of public debt in countries forming a union (as outlined, e.g., by the Maastricht treaty). We consider a federal union of states where the center has limited control over the spending patterns of the union members, and where the union members' behavior has...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005719935
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The financial crisis and sizable international reserves depletion: From 'fear of floating' to the 'fear of losing international reserves'?
Aizenman, Joshua; Sun, Yi - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2009
In this paper we study the degree to which Emerging Markets (EMs) adjusted to the global liquidity crisis by drawing down their international reserves (IR). Overall, we find a mixed and complex picture. Intriguingly, only about half of the EMs depleted their IR as part of the adjustment...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008490434
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Global Savings and Global Investment: The Transmission of Identified Fiscal Shocks
Feyrer, James; Shambaugh, Jay C. - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2009
This paper examines the effect of exogenous shocks to savings on world capital markets. Using the exogenous shocks to US tax policy identified by Romer & Romer, we trace the impact of an exogenous shock to savings through the income accounting identities of the US and the rest of the world. We...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005036810
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Inflation-Gap Persistence in the U.S.
Cogley, Timothy; Primiceri, Giorgio; Sargent, Thomas - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2008
We use Bayesian methods to estimate two models of post WWII U.S. inflation rates with drifting stochastic volatility … and drifting coefficients. One model is univariate, the other a multivariate autoregression. We define the inflation gap … as the deviation of inflation from a pure random walk component of inflation and use both of our models to study changes …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005720271
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Forming Priors for DSGE Models (and How it Affects the Assessment of Nominal Rigidities)
Del Negro, Marco; Schorfheide, Frank - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2008
The paper discusses prior elicitation for the parameters of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models, and provides a method for constructing prior distributions for a subset of these parameters from beliefs about the moments of the endogenous variables. The empirical application...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005088876
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Are Structural VARs with Long-Run Restrictions Useful in Developing Business Cycle Theory?
Chari, Varadarajan; Kehoe, Patrick J.; McGrattan, Ellen R. - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2008
The central finding of the recent structural vector autoregression (SVAR) literature with a differenced specification of hours is that technology shocks lead to a fall in hours. Researchers have used this finding to argue that real business cycle models are unpromising. We subject this SVAR...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005089012
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Global Business Cycles: Convergence or Decoupling?
Kose, Ayhan; Otrok, Christopher; Prasad, Eswar - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2008
This paper analyzes the evolution of the degree of global cyclical interdependence over the period 1960-2005. We categorize the 106 countries in our sample into three groups -- industrial countries, emerging markets, and other developing economies. Using a dynamic factor model, we then decompose...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005777599
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The Supply and Demand for Safe Assets
Gorton, Gary; Ordonez, Guillermo L. - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2013
There is a demand for safe assets, either government bonds or private substitutes, for use as collateral. Government bonds are safe assets, given the government's power to tax, but their supply is driven by fiscal considerations, and does not necessarily meet the private demand for safe assets....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010969335