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Estimating Person-Centered Treatment (PeT) Effects Using Instrumental Variables
Basu, Anirban - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2012
This paper builds on the methods of local instrumental variables developed by Heckman and Vytlacil (1999, 2001, 2005) to estimate person-centered treatment (PeT) effects that are conditioned on the person's observed characteristics and averaged over the potential conditional distribution of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011271410
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Heaping-Induced Bias in Regression-Discontinuity Designs
Barreca, Alan Irwin; Waddell, Glen; Lindo, Jason M. - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2011
This study uses Monte Carlo simulations to demonstrate that regression-discontinuity designs arrive at biased estimates when attributes related to outcomes predict heaping in the running variable. After showing that our usual diagnostics are poorly suited to identifying this type of problem, we...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009294567
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The Roles of Cognitive and Non-Cognitive Skills in Moderating the Effects of Mixed-Ability Schools on Long-Term Health
Basu, Anirban; Jones, Andrew M.; Dias, Pedro Rosa - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2014
-term health and smoking behaviour. We explore the roles that cognitive and non-cognitive skills may play in moderating these … schooling system produced significant negative effects on long-term health and increased smoking behavior among a small fraction … negatively affected by exposure to mixed-ability schools. Our results also show that cigarette smoking could be a leading …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011114861
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Assessing DSGE Model Nonlinearities
Aruoba, S. Boragan; Schorfheide, Frank; Bocola, Luigi - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2013
We develop a new class of nonlinear time-series models to identify nonlinearities in the data and to evaluate nonlinear DSGE models. U.S. output growth and the federal funds rate display nonlinear conditional mean dynamics, while inflation and nominal wage growth feature conditional...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010969293
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Constrained Discretion and Central Bank Transparency
Bianchi, Francesco; Melosi, Leonardo - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2014
We develop and estimate a general equilibrium model in which monetary policy can deviate from active inflation stabilization and agents face uncertainty about the nature of these deviations. When observing a deviation, agents conduct Bayesian learning to infer its likely duration. Under...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010951160
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Estimating Second Order Probability Beliefs from Subjective Survival Data
Hudomiet, Péter; Willis, Robert J. - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2012
, personality, subjective health and health behavior are underweighted. We also find that less educated people, smokers and women …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010951252
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Prior Selection for Vector Autoregressions
Giannone, Domenico; Primiceri, Giorgio; Lenza, Michele - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2012
Vector autoregressions (VARs) are flexible time series models that can capture complex dynamic interrelationships among macroeconomic variables. However, their dense parameterization leads to unstable inference and inaccurate out-of-sample forecasts, particularly for models with many variables....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011272306
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Bayesian Variable Selection for Nowcasting Economic Time Series
Varian, Hal; Scott, Steven L. - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2013
We consider the problem of short-term time series forecasting (nowcasting) when there are more possible predictors than observations. Our approach combines three Bayesian techniques: Kalman filtering, spike-and-slab regression, and model averaging. We illustrate this approach using search engine...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011264930
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Dynamics of Fiscal Financing in the United States
Leeper, Eric; Plante, Michael; Traum, Nora - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2009
Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models that include policy rules for government spending, lump-sum transfers, and distortionary taxation on labor and capital income and on consumption expenditures are fit to U.S. data under a variety of specifications of fiscal policy rules. We obtain...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005079153
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How Structural Are Structural Parameters?
Fernandez-Villaverde, Jesus; Rubio-Ramirez, Juan F - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2007
This paper studies how stable over time are the so-called "structural parameters" of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. To answer this question, we estimate a medium-scale DSGE model with real and nominal rigidities using U.S. data. In our model, we allow for parameter...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005084900