Many recent papers have found that atheoretical forecasting methods using many predictors give better predictions for …

Forecasts of the rate of price inflation play a central role in the formulation of monetary policy, and forecasting … forecasting puzzles. It appears currently to be difficult for multivariate forecasts to improve on forecasts made using this time …

Pools, and use it to investigate the relative forecasting performance of DSGE models with and without financial frictions …

subjective choices in the setting of the prior. Moreover, it performs very well both in terms of out-of-sample forecasting …

preliminary evidence characterizing successful forecasting episodes. …

Forecasting using `diffusion indices' has received a good deal of attention in recent years. The idea is to use the …

forecasting, and the answer is yes. Such a problem tends to arise when the idiosyncratic errors are cross-correlated. It can also … arise if forecasting power is provided by a factor that is dominant in a small dataset but is a dominated factor in a larger … dataset. In a real time forecasting exercise, we find that factors extracted from as few as 40 pre-screened series often yield …