for output growth and inflation from 1992 to 2011. We find strong evidence of time variation in the pool's weights …

-statistic has best power. We illustrate our procedures by comparing forecasts of different models for U.S. inflation. …

concepts, in particular for inflation. We show that exploiting more information is important for accurate estimation of the …

methods and to the Greenbook forecast. For inflation we find that univariate methods are dominated by the best atheoretical …

Forecasts of the rate of price inflation play a central role in the formulation of monetary policy, and forecasting … inflation is a key job for economists at the Federal Reserve Board. This paper examines whether this job has become harder and …, to the extent that it has, what changes in the inflation process have made it so. The main finding is that the univariate …

This paper surveys the literature since 1993 on pseudo out-of-sample evaluation of inflation forecasts in the United …